How a US Government Shutdown Could Impact Americans

With the United States government on the brink of a shutdown this week while Congress remains deadlocked over a funding deal, federal departments and agencies have begun the mandatory planning process to suspend non-essential functions.

The Office of Management and Budget reminded senior agency officials on Friday to update and review shutdown plans.

Each department and agency has its own set of plans and procedures. This guidance includes information about how many employees would be furloughed, which employees are essential and which would work without pay, how long it would take to cease operations in the hours before the shutdown, and which activities would be halted.

These plans may vary for each shutdown.

If Congress fails to pass a short-term spending bill to keep the lights on, a shutdown could have huge impacts on all Americans, in areas ranging from air travel to drinking water.

The nearly 4 million Americans who are federal employees will feel the effect immediately. Essential workers will remain on the job, but others will be furloughed until the shutdown ends. No one will be paid during the standoff.

For many of them, a shutdown would strain their finances, as happened during the record 35-day funding lapse in 2018-2019.

“We have had thousands of members across the country who have returned Christmas gifts because they needed money, missed mortgage payments, taken out short-term loans and increased their credit card debt because they didn’t receive paychecks for a month,” said Doreen Greenwald , president of the National Treasury Employees Union, which represents 150,000 workers in 35 bodies.

“They lined up at food banks, took their children out of daycare, couldn’t get gas in their cars, and begged their creditors for mercy. This is not how the United States should treat its own employees,” she said.

On average, members of the American Federation of Government Employees earn between $55,000 and $65,000 per year, while hourly workers earn an average of $45,000 annually. But thousands earn closer to $15 an hour, or $31,200 a year.

“The majority of our members live paycheck to paycheck and cannot afford to miss a day of pay, let alone more,” said Everett Kelley, union president. “That’s why we’re asking Congress to do its job and pass a budget to avoid a government-wide shutdown.”

The American Federation of Government Employees is the largest federal employee union, with 750,000 members in nearly every agency in the federal and Washington, D.C. governments. Its members include health care professionals, corrections and police officers, park rangers, Transportation Security Administration agents and Social Security workers.

Here are some of those impacts Americans can expect:

Trip

The White House is sounding alarms about massive disruptions to air travel as tens of thousands of air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration personnel work without pay. During the 2019 shutdown, hundreds of TSA agents walked off the job – many of them to find other ways to make money.

The White House warned there could be “significant delays and longer wait times for travelers at airports across the country.”

And some passport services may close in the event of a shutdown, the State Department’s 2022 guidance states.

Economy

There could also be huge economic implications. In the event of a strike, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says it will stop releasing data, including important figures on inflation and unemployment. The lack of crucial government data would make it difficult for investors and the Federal Reserve to interpret the U.S. economy.

The Small Business Administration would not make new loans to any businesses, according to its 2021 guidance. And the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will “cease the vast majority of its operations,” including market supervision, according to its guidance. 2021.

Public health and safety

There will be impacts on public health and safety across multiple agencies if the government closes. While public health emergency measures, outbreak response and laboratory functions will remain operational, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns that “other public health activities will operate at a reduced capacity.”

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) “may be forced to delay food safety inspections for a wide range of products across the country,” the White House warns.

And the Occupational Safety and Health Administration “would be forced to limit workplace inspections,” the White House warns, putting worker safety at risk.

There could also be risks to drinking water, the White House warns, as the Environmental Protection Agency will handle “the majority” of its inspection activity at hazardous waste sites and drinking water and chemical facilities.

The White House also suggested that “efforts to address dangerous contaminants like PFAS – which are linked to serious health effects including cancer – would be delayed and cleanup activities at Superfund sites would reduce or cease.”

Arts, culture and outdoor activities

A government shutdown could affect some of the country’s most prized treasures, such as museums and national parks. All Smithsonian museums and the National Zoo would be closed, according to 2021 guidance, although a shutdown would not affect zoo animal care. Some presidential libraries would be closed, according to plans from the National Archives and Records Administration.

And it remains unclear whether the National Park Service could close national park sites or adjacent facilities, but that has occurred in previous shutdowns, with trash piling up, toilets overflowing and visitors committing acts of vandalism while the park service workforce was reduced.

Student Loans and Education

The Department of Education previously warned that there could be “some level of disruption” to major student aid programs, including Pell Grants, during a shutdown.

“As a result of the permanent, multi-year appropriations, some basic operations (such as the processing of free applications for federal student aid, FAFSA, the disbursement of Pell Grants and federal direct student loans, and the servicing of federal student loans) could continue for a very limited period; these operations may also experience some level of disruption due to a lapse,” the department says in its 2021 guidance.

The nation’s schools could also face interruptions in federal funding, with the Department of Education warning in that guidance that a delay longer than a week would “severely reduce cash flow for school districts, colleges, and universities.”

That memo also notes that approximately 1 in 10 school districts receives more than 15% of their funding from federally funded programs.

The White House also warns that approximately 10,000 children across the country would “immediately lose access to Head Start programs,” affecting some of the country’s youngest citizens.

Food assistance

Enrollees in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, as food stamps are formally known, will receive benefits through October, but what happens after that is unknown, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

However, the agency does not have enough funding to support normal operations of the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children beyond a few days of shutdowns – although each state may have additional money to continue the program.

Food banks will not be able to place new orders and some existing deliveries may be interrupted.

Additionally, a government shutdown would lead to a delay in federal reimbursements to Meals on Wheels, which could force some community programs to suspend meal services; start or expand waiting lists; reduce the number of meals they deliver or the number of days they deliver; or even shut down the operation, said the nonprofit, which delivers meals to more than 2.8 million seniors annually.

Housing assistance

The 2018-2019 shutdown caused uncertainty for tens of thousands of low-income renters who rely on the federal government to help pay their rent. The Department of Housing and Urban Development has failed to renew about 1,650 contracts with private building owners who rent to poor Americans, many of them elderly or disabled.

The agency asked owners to use their reserves to cover any needs.

HUD officials suggested at the time that expiring leases would likely not prompt landlords to immediately begin eviction proceedings. But building owners may have had to postpone repairs or suspend services they provide, such as transportation, after-school care or social programs, experts say. It is not yet clear how many contracts would be affected by a shutdown this time.

Campaigns

The Federal Election Commission, the nation’s main agency concerned with ensuring elections and enforcing federal campaign finance law, would be severely affected by a shutdown.

“Virtually all essential functions of the agency” would cease, according to the commission’s plans. This includes reviewing campaign finance disclosure reports and applying the Federal Election Campaign Law, as well as assisting campaign and political committee treasurers and members of the public with campaign finance laws.

Search

Numerous government agencies involved in research would be forced to stop these efforts during a government shutdown. For example, NOAA – the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – would shut down “most research activities.” And no new National Science Foundation grants would be awarded.

Recruitment

Efforts to recruit new hires across government agencies would be significantly reduced during a shutdown. Could impact recruitment, selection and placement for the Peace Corps; all State Department civil service jobs in accordance with 2022 guidance; and all new Department of Defense hires, among many others.