Almost all European countries – including Greece but also the richest northeastern US states – had lower mortality rates during the second wave of infections. Covid-19, according to a new international study.
In some countries, such as France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, there have been very large reductions in mortality from the first to the second wave. In other countries, such as Sweden and Germany, the decline in mortality has been, but it was much smaller. In Europe only Belarus appears to have increased mortality in the second wave.
Researchers from the Universities of Sydney in Australia and Ching Hua in China, who developed a new mathematical-statistical model specifically for the evolution of the pandemic and published it in the journal Mathematics “Chaos”, suggest a series of explanations for the difference in mortality between the first and second wave:
The cases in the first European wave were underestimated in number (so the actual mortality of the first wave was lower), the infections in the first wave disproportionately affected the most vulnerable older people resulting in more deaths, while in the second wave , as well as the fact that – with a few exceptions – the lowest mortality rates of the first wave occurred in countries with good health systems.
The most massive – compared to the first – second epidemic wave in Europe, despite the pressure on health systems, was ultimately less severe than expected in terms of deaths, according to the Athenian News Agency. In countries such as the Netherlands (16-fold reduction in mortality), France (14-fold reduction), Denmark (14-fold reduction) and Belgium (11-fold reduction), there was a significant reduction in mortality between the first and second waves . In the US, the difference was much smaller, with the exception of states such as New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, which were hit hard in the first wave but much less in the second.
“The problem will always be the actual number of cases in the first wave. “We may never know him, but future research and analysis will try to figure it out,” said Dr. Max Menzis of Beijing’s Chinghua University.
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