How many deaths could the end of zero Covid in China bring?

Severe pressures on the health system may be brought by the sudden end of the zero COVID policy in China and lead to up to 2 million deaths, or more, according to research groups.

New analyzes from several predictive models predict that reopening activities could lead to up to 2.1 million deaths. As of yesterday, China had officially recorded 5,242 COVID-related deaths during the pandemic, a small percentage compared to its population of 1.4 billion.

Here are some of the estimates:

Over 2,000,000 deaths

Zhou Jiatong, head of the Center for Disease Control in southwest China’s Guangxi region, said last month in a study published by the Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine that mainland China faces more than 2 million deaths if restrictions are eased. of COVID the same way Hong Kong did this year. Infections could rise to more than 233 million, according to his forecast.

Increased demand for ICUs

In May, scientists in China and the US estimated that China risks more than 1.5 million COVID-related deaths if it abandons its strict zero- COVID without protective measures, such as increasing vaccination and access to treatments, according to research published in Nature Medicine.

They predicted that peak demand for intensive care units would exceed capacity by 15 times, causing about 1.5 million deaths, based on global data compiled on the severity of the variant strain.

However, the researchers – whose lead authors were from Fudan University in China – said the death toll could be significantly reduced if the emphasis was on vaccination.

Up to 2.1 million

China could record 1.3 million to 2.1 million deaths if it lifts its zero-Covid policy, due to low rates of basic vaccination and booster doses and a lack of hybrid immunity, the UK-based scientific information and analysis firm said. Airfinity in late November.

The company said it calculated its figures based on the wave of BA.1 in Hong Kong in February, which occurred after the metropolis eased restrictions after two years, APE-MPE reports, citing Reuters.

Over 1 million in 2023

The US-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), part of the University of Washington, said on Friday that based on an updated model it expects more than 1 million deaths by 2023. According to the institute’s calculations, the outbreaks in China they are expected to reach their peak around April 1, while in the same period the deaths will be about 322,000. About a third of China’s population will have been infected by the virus by then, according to IHME director Christopher Murray.

Experts at the University of Hong Kong predict that lifting all restrictions and reopening all provinces simultaneously in December and January 2023 would result in deaths from COVID-19 reaching 684 per million, according to a study published on last week but has not yet been peer reviewed.

Based on China’s population of 1.4 billion, and without a booster dose campaign, this equates to 964,400 deaths.