According to official statements by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey is conducting “a special operation against Kurdish terrorist organizations” in northern Syria. If you look at the plans of the Turkish Armed Forces and the Syrian National Army (SNA, consisting of former and current jihadists, opposition, Uighurs and various fighters, mercenaries of Turkey), we are talking about the following areas:
According to a New Voice of Ukraine article on the one hand, Turkish forces have set up a security zone along the northern border. In 2019, Turkey was already planning to do so. However, due to the conditions of that time, they could not complete the case and occupied only a part of the territory they claimed in the north. Now there is talk of a 30 km zone. Most of it was occupied by pro-government Syrians and Russians. This is one of the directions. And now Turkish forces are planning to occupy Tel Rifat and Manbij – cities on the right bank of the Euphrates River. They are controlled by the Kurds, but there are also units of the Syrian army.
Turkey was able to launch its special operation only after the Russians withdrew their troops from the area as they needed resources in Ukraine.
Earlier, the Russians and the Turks had reached an agreement on joint control over the territories of northern Syria. Obviously, the agreement is no longer operational, so the Turks feel relieved of their obligations.
Most experts and military observers believe that the Russians would do nothing to help their Syrian allies in this situation, while the Syrians at least are trying to send additional troops to these areas. Whether the Syrians are ready to resist the Turks is also a mystery.
That was one of the reasons why Erdogan opposed Finland and Sweden’s ambitions to join NATO. In 2019, Finland and Sweden imposed sanctions on Turkey following its invasion of Syria. Erdogan’s current position is an attempt to play this situation in the context of his new offensive on Syrian soil.
Ukraine’s strong resistance to Russian aggression has created an unlikely situation.
A year ago, it was difficult to imagine a new Turkish attack on Syria. At that time it seemed to have reached a dead end, although the motives of the Turks are easily understood. They wanted to radically change the ethnic composition of northern Syria. Their main goal is to colonize the 30km zone they now control with Syrian refugees living in Turkey and thus create a security zone. This will allow them to break the continuity of Kurdish settlements between Kurds from Syria and Kurds from Turkey.
A year ago, these plans were almost impossible. But now that the Russians need all their resources in Ukraine (there is unconfirmed information that Syrians are now fighting in Severodonetsk), it is clear that the Turks have a chance.
In addition, there seems to be a clear agreement between the Turks and the Russians on this Syrian operation – the Russians are not intervening. For this, the Turks exchange their conditional neutrality.
Now the Turks will use every opportunity to strengthen their position.
We are monitoring their active mediation efforts for Ukrainian cereals. They are also trying to continue working to find a solution and use Turkey as a venue for negotiations. Thus, the Turks are actively using their advantages and the fact that Russia, at least in this situation, needs Turkey.
Russia will now look for any way to prevent the strengthening of the anti-Russian front. In this case, too, such maneuvers by Turkey are seen by Moscow as a kind of hope that this can be achieved.
The Turks will negotiate until the last minute, whatever happens. It is a nation that likes to negotiate and negotiate without limit. It does not always work out, failure is possible. But in this case, the Turks are lucky – the situation seems to be in their favor.
Petros Kranias
Read also:
* How Erdogan prepared for the annexation of northern Syria: Famine, ethnic cleansing and Turkification
* Turkish forces attack Syrian Kurds, says SNA brigadier
* US-Russia put a “brake” on Erdogan: Turkey suspends possible attack on Syria
* A “storm” breaks out in the Black Sea: Turkey’s contradictory policy towards Ukraine
Source: Capital
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