Hurricane Ian rapidly strengthens as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico

Satellite images from early Tuesday afternoon suggest that Hurricane Ian — currently a Category 3 with winds of 193 km/h — is strengthening as it moves into the ultra-hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters noted that it could be entering another period of rapid intensification.

Rapid intensification is exactly what it sounds like — the winds of a hurricane rapidly building up in a short period of time. Scientists defined it as an increase in wind speed of at least 56 km/h in 24 hours or less.

There are several things that meteorologists point to as evidence that Ian could escalate quickly. The hurricane’s central pressure is dropping and frequent lightning strikes have been observed in and around the eyewall.

Satellite images also depict so-called “mesovortices” in the eye — smaller areas of circulation that rotate inside the eye like weather vanes — which could be a sign of a strong, intensifying storm.

The impressive and very clear eye of Hurricane Ian this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/vNC3VisXEu

— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) September 27, 2022

Two ingredients must come together for rapid intensification to occur — both present in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico:

1. Higher level winds around the hurricane need to be light as strong winds can stop a storm from intensifying or even destroy a storm
2. Warm ocean water must extend well below the surface, reaching hundreds of meters deep, to provide enough fuel for the hurricane to strengthen.

Rapid intensification has historically been a rare phenomenon, but it is becoming more common as the climate crisis warms ocean temperatures and stacks the deck in favor of more intense hurricanes.