Hurricane Ian threatens Cuba and Florida; Storm’s trajectory is uncertain

Ian is already a hurricane, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) 6:00 am update.

Hurricane Ian now has winds of 120 km/h with even greater gusts. Ian is located about 145 kilometers south-southwest of Grand Cayman and about 500 kilometers southeast of the western tip of Cuba.

A hurricane watch was issued along the west coast of Florida, north of Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

While its exact trajectory remains unclear, Ian strengthened Sunday night as it churned across the Caribbean, threatening to hit Florida like a hurricane with high winds and dangerous storms.

While Ian is going strong, there is still “greater than normal” uncertainty about his trajectory and intensity, according to the NHC.

Ian is expected to strengthen into a major Category 3 or higher hurricane by Tuesday, the center said.

Ian is predicted to get stronger as it approaches western Cuba on Monday morning, potentially reaching a Category 2 force when it reaches the mainland. Life-threatening storm surges and strong winds are expected, the center said. “Efforts to protect life and property must be completed quickly,” the meteorologists added.

Ian is expected to produce “heavy rains, flash floods and possible landslides” in higher areas, particularly Jamaica and Cuba.

The models project different scenarios for where he might get to Florida and how strong he might be in the middle of the week. As of Sunday, meteorologists estimated that Ian would become a Category 4 hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then weaken before reaching Florida.

Regardless of the lan’s exact trajectory and intensity, Florida residents should prepare for the risk of dangerous storms, high winds and heavy rain along the west coast and the region known as the Florida Panhandle, the center said.

With flash flooding and urban flooding likely in the Florida Keys and Florida Panhandle midweek, a tropical storm watch was issued for the lower Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge south of Key West.

Florida Governor Activates National Guard

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis activated the National Guard Sunday morning, saying that while Ian’s path remains uncertain, his impact will be widely felt across the state. State and federal disaster declarations were made over the weekend.

One model project that Ian will do landing in the Tampa Bay area, while another model projects landing in the Panhandle, DeSantis said.

“Everyone in Florida is going to feel the brunt of the storm,” Florida Emergency Management Division director Kevin Guthrie told CNN on Sunday.

A major concern is how quickly the storm could intensify, said Jason Dunion, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) hurricane research field program.

Infrared imagery of the newly formed #HurricaneIan this morning via the #GOESEast satellite shows the storm moving through the Caribbean.

Latest: https://t.co/ScLdyBrN1b#FLwx https://t.co/9rsKZOGSjV pic.twitter.com/gz4cmAYs3k

— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) September 26, 2022

“The storm can increase its speed by 56 kilometers per hour in a day,” Dunon said. “It can go from a tropical storm to a category 1 (hurricane), or from a category 1 to a category 3 in just 24 hours. This makes it especially important for people to pay attention to this storm in the coming days. ” “.

As Ian approaches, Florida residents are asked to stock up on supplies like radios, water, canned food and medicine for at least seven days and familiarize themselves with evacuation routes.

Residents of Tampa and other areas were seen lining up to pick up sandbags as they braced for the storm on Sunday.

Filling sandbags with other community members in Orange County, José Lugo told the CNN WFTV that knows what can happen if the worst happens.

“It’s better to be prepared than sorry later,” Lugo said. “I was in Puerto Rico visiting my parents a few days before Fiona’s attack. I was helping them and now I’m here helping myself and everyone else.”

Cities and counties across the state are also getting ready.

Authorities in Tallahassee, the state capital, are working to remove debris and ensure the city’s power lines and stormwater systems are clean. “We are doing everything we can before the storm to prepare and protect our infrastructure,” said Tallahassee Mayor John Dailey.

Petersburg Mayor Kenneth Welch said his city on Florida’s Gulf Coast is in a vulnerable position. “Even a tropical storm can knock out our power grid for a long time. We are educating to be prepared and to plan,” Welch told CNN .

Regardless of how strong the storm hits the state, Florida is bracing for a dangerous storm surge, Guthrie said, which is when the force of a hurricane or storm pushes ocean water toward the coast.

“We can see a Category 4 storm surge and a Category 1 or 2 landfall situation,” Guthrie said.

Officials in Cape Coral, a city in southwest Florida known for its many canals, were particularly concerned about the storms and winds.

“Right now of course we are like many other cities, we are preparing for the worst, hoping for the best,” Cape Coral Mayor John Gunter told CNN .

In Hillsborough County, Ian’s outreach has left the school district “with no choice” but to close all schools as campuses are turned into storm shelters, according to the Hillsborough County Public Schools.

Bethune-Cookman University in Daytona Beach issued a mandatory evacuation order on Saturday and canceled classes on Monday because of the approaching storm.

Preparations were also underway in Georgia, where Governor Brian Kemp ordered the activation of the State Operations Center on Monday “to prepare for any potential impacts from Tropical Storm Ian later in the week.”

“Although models suggest it will weaken before landing on Thursday, and its final path has yet to be determined, Ian could cause severe weather damage across much of Georgia,” said a press release from the governor’s office.

Experts call for maximum attention

Dunion said ocean temperatures are extremely hot, even below the surface, and that means “a lot of fuel for energy storms.”

“This could cause a rapid intensification of a storm and many of our models suggest that we will see this rapid intensification in the coming days,” Dunion said.

Ken Graham, deputy administrator for weather services at NOAA, told CNN that rain is a major cause of death in strong tropical systems.

“When you close your eyes and you think about a hurricane, you think about the wind, but it’s the water that’s really hurting people and that’s what we really need to talk about. And it’s increasing with climate change,” Graham said.

Even if it hits as a Category 2 hurricane, Ian could cause a significant storm, Graham said. “Actually, there could be more people affected by a storm when it expands like this. So people cannot let their guard down, regardless of the category,” he added.

“Many people judge the current storm by what they’ve experienced in the past and the reality is that every storm is completely different,” Graham said.

With information from Robert Shackelford, Melissa Alonso, Caitlin Kaiser and Michelle Watson of CNN