The São Paulo stock exchange opens with a negative bias in the first trades this Monday, following US stock futures and while financial agents continue to monitor negotiations related to the Transition PEC.
The rise in Vale’s shares, however, curbed the negative pressure on the Ibovespa, in the wake of the advance of iron ore in China.
At 11:00 am, the Ibovespa fell 0.64%, to 111,203 points, with most of its stocks down.
At the same time, the Ibovespa futures with shorter maturity, on December 14, yielded 0.28%, to 111,940 points.
Dollar
The dollar was high against the real this Monday, as investors prepared for a challenging week, which will bring a possible vote on the Transition PEC in the Senate and the Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, while the market continues to wait for the definition of the ministerial team of the elected government.
Abroad, the maintenance of fears about the path of monetary tightening by the US central bank contributed to the discomfort of investors.
Around 11:00 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar rose 0.46%, to R$ 5.239 on sale.
On B3, the first-maturity dollar futures contract gained 0.22%, at R$ 5.258.
In the last session, on Friday, the US currency rose by 0.31% to R$5.214 on sale.
political scenario
The president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), placed the PEC of the Transition on the agenda of the next Wednesday of the plenary of the House, despite the proposal still being in the Commission of Constitution and Justice (CCJ) for evaluation of the senators, reported the presidency of the House on Sunday night.
The expectation is that the Transition PEC will be debated on Tuesday at the CCJ in the Senate and voted on by the committee on Wednesday morning, to then go to the plenary of the House on the afternoon of the same Wednesday.
As it was filed in the Senate last week, the PEC makes an exception to the spending ceiling rule of almost 200 billion reais for four years, largely to fund Bolsa Família. The value was not well received by the markets, which expect the amount to be reduced during the course of the Congress.
Investor concerns about the spending sought by the elected government have been exacerbated by the lack of definition of who will be Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s finance minister, a figure who could help in the negotiation of the Transition PEC, experts say.
“Uncertainties regarding the names of ministers remain as the main guideline of the internal scenario, along with discussions on the Transition PEC”, said Banco Inter in a note, also citing possible pressure from abroad after the release of US employment data. robust at the end of last week.
Non-farm job creation in the United States totaled 263,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, above the 200,000 jobs expected by economists polled by Reuters.
This reading “could mean higher interest rates for longer in the world’s largest economy, even with inflation slowing down in October”, evaluated Inter. The higher borrowing costs are in the US, the more the dollar tends to benefit globally.
Back in Brazil, investors were waiting for the meeting of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, which will begin on Tuesday and end on Wednesday. Although there is consensus in the market that the Selic rate will be maintained at the current 13.75%, investors will be attentive to any indication from the Copom on how the current fiscal uncertainties may affect decisions to raise interest rates.
“The Copom should reinforce its cautious stance with the ongoing disinflationary process, perhaps raising the tone about the possibility of interest rate hikes”, said Citi in a report, although it has as its base scenario the maintenance of the Selic rate this week.
Faced with the prospect of strong spending by the elected government, the Brazilian interest rate curve even priced new Selic increases in 2023, while the most recent weekly Focus survey by the Central Bank suggests a less intense monetary easing over the next year.
João Felipe Dias, investment advisor at SVN Investimentos, said that the trading session this Monday may have reduced liquidity due to the game of the Brazilian soccer team against South Korea in the World Cup, at 4 pm (Brasília time).
The match “should impact both the currency flow and the market in general in Brazil”, evaluated the expert.
Source: CNN Brasil
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