Ibovespa preview: see analysts’ bets on who enters or leaves the index

The first preview of the new composition of the Ibovespa — the main performance indicator of the shares listed on B3 — should be released next Friday (3).

Comprised of 91 assets from 84 companies, the index is reassessed every four months. The next theoretical portfolio will be in effect between January and April 2022.

See what can change, in the opinion of experts:

Positivo and Porto Seguro among the favorites

Most of the analysts’ bets point to the entry of the technology company Positivo (POSI3) and the insurance company Porto Seguro (PSSA3) in the index.

“Both have a history of positive volume and a high number of shares traded”, points out the XP report. Bank of America and BTG Pactual also have the Positivo asset among their bets.

In the case of Positivo, in addition to being the largest Brazilian manufacturer in the technology area, the company has recently expanded its portfolio and already holds around 3% of the total market share of payment machines in Brazil, say sector analysts Bernardo Guttmann and Marco Nardini.

“Another highlight was the significant growth in gross revenue and the expansion of Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) in the third quarter. Positivo’s net revenue increased 62.5%, to R$ 828.79 million, between July and September”.

Regarding Porto Seguro, there was an increase in the insured fleet of 7.8% in the third quarter, in addition to the credit portfolio which reached R$ 12.5 billion, an increase of 41.4% compared to 2020, according to analysts Eduardo Nishio, head of research and finance at Genial Investimentos, Bruno Bandiera and Guilherme Vianna, analysts in the brokerage’s financial sector.

Another highlight was the announcement of a partnership with Cosan to explore the car rental business. “In our view, such initiatives can contribute to the growth of the financial services and easy car business verticals, despite the risk of losing focus with a large number of projects being carried out simultaneously,” analysts say.

other bets

Filipe Villegas, stock strategist at Genial Investimentos, and Evandro Bertho, founding partner of Nau Capital, believe that CESP (CESP6) and CSN Mineração (CMIN3) will also join the Ibovespa.

If the expectation is confirmed, the index will have 95 companies. This being the largest number of companies, “providing greater sector diversification and less dependence on a select group of companies that are currently concentrated in companies linked to commodities and the banking sector”, says Villegas.

Vale (VALE3), for example, has an 11.81% stake, while the assets of Petrobras PETR4 and PETR3 weigh 6.39% and 4.96%, respectively. Itaú (ITUB4) occupies 5.4% of the Ibovespa portfolio.

The XP report estimates that the weight of the new papers will be: CMIN3 with 0.3%, CESP6 and PSSA3 with 0.2%, and POSI3 with 0.03%.

For companies to be included in the Ibovespa, according to B3, companies need to:

• To be among the eligible assets that, in the period of three portfolios, together represented 85% of the total IN (negotiability indicators, or indicator of the volume of negotiations);
• Be present in 95% of the trading sessions that took place during the last portfolio;
• Participate in the financial volume greater than or equal to 0.1% on the spot market, also in the period of the last portfolio;
• Not be classified as penny stock, shares traded for less than R$1.00.

Outputs

While XP and Garde do not foresee any exit in the new portfolio, Genial believes that GetNet (GETT11), which held its IPO on October 22 and has a 0.017% stake in the Ibovespa, will leave the composition next year.

The company’s shares have devalued more than 40% since its public offering. “The stock does not comply with the criteria established by B3 to remain on the index. For example, it presents the Negotiability Index below that indicated”, justifies the founding partner of Nau Capital, who also believes in withdrawing the share.

According to Economatica, 46 companies debuted on the Stock Exchange this year, and, in the median, excluding outliers (which are far from the trend of the majority), newcomers’ shares had a negative performance of 27.43% since their debut.

According to B3, the exclusion criteria for companies from the index are:

• Failing to meet two of the inclusion criteria;
• Being among the assets classified above 90% of the IN in the period of three portfolios;
• Are defined as penny stock;
• During the period of validity of the portfolio, they are classified in a special situation.

On January 3, the Ibovespa index will officially enter and exit.

Settings

Analysts at Garde Investimentos believe that Vale may gain 2.2% more space on the Ibovespa, and the shares of Banco Inter, BIDI4 and BIDI11, will rise by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively – fintech shares have today the participation of 0.1% and 0.8%.

On the other hand, analysts expect Petrobras common shares (PETR4) to lose 0.6%, BTG Pacual (BPAC11) and Klabin (KLBN11) to fall 0.4%, and Ambev (ABEV3) to fall 0.2 %.

Nau Capital, on the other hand, projects that Vale will grow by 3.6% and that Rede D’Or (RDOR3) will rise to 1.6%. The hospital network currently has a participation of 0.86%.

XP also believes that Petrobras’ preferred share will fall 0.50% and that Itaú (IBU4) and Bradesco (BBDC4) may lose 0.40%.

Genial does not foresee a rebalancing in the current compositions.

Best returns of the month:

According to the survey carried out by Economatica for the CNN, Marfrig (MRFG3), which has a 0.45% share in the portfolio, was the company that gave the highest return among all of the index, between July 31 and November 23. The papers of the food producer appreciated 39.67%.

In second and third place were PetroRio (PRIO3) and Telefônica Brasil (VIVT3), respectively. The oil company, which makes up 0.96% of the main Brazilian index, appreciated 27% in the same period, while the telephone network, which has the weight of 1.14%, grew 24.80% in the last four months.

current portfolio

The last portfolio, released in September, registered the entry of Alpargatas (ALPA4), Inter Bank (BIDI4), Pan Bank (BPAN4), Meliuz (CASH3), Rede D’Or (RDOR3), Dexco (DXCO3) and Petz (PETZ3 ).

Stocks included in the index gained an average of 10.4% in the 30 days before the official rebalancing, according to an XP report.

See how the performance, between July 31 and last Tuesday (23), of the shares that are part of the Ibovespa portfolio that will expire on December 30.