With an average value of R$ 7.29 in the country, according to data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), economists consulted by the CNN calculate how much the reduction in gasoline prices could reach, if the ceiling for charging ICMS on fuel becomes a law.
Former Rio State Finance Secretary Luiz Claudio Carvalho and the director of the Instituto Combustível Legal, Carlo Faccio, pointed out that the drop in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, for example, could reach, respectively, R$ 1 .15 and R$ 0.48 per liter. In these states, the average for gasoline is R$7.80 and R$6.90, respectively.
Today, those who live in Rio pay 34% ICMS on gasoline; those who live in São Paulo, 25%. The project that limits the tax rate was approved by the Chamber of Deputies and will be examined by the Senate.
By the proposal, the estimate is that the ceiling is the modal ICMS, a kind of standard rate for goods and services. In some states, such as RJ and SP, the modal ICMS is 18%, so the new fuel cap would be 18%.
Therefore, explains economist Luiz Claudio Carvalho, it is not correct to tax that the limit established for all states will be 17%.
Despite the rate proposed by the project being lower, the former secretary evaluated that there is, however, no guarantee that the eventual tax reduction will be fully passed on to the consumer by distributors and gas stations. According to him, a discount proportional to a tax reduction does not usually occur in Brazil.
Carvalho stressed that the freezing, in November, of the ICMS on fuels – a decision taken by the states – has already reduced the tax collection, which is reflected in the PMPF (Weighted Average Price to Final Consumer) which, in the case of Rio de Janeiro, it is R$ 6.785 – at the pumps in the state, the average price is R$ 7.80.
According to the former secretary, the voluntary freezing of the tax makes Rio de Janeiro receive, today, R$ 0.34 less in ICMS per liter of gasoline.
The economist and specialist in public accounts Murilo Viana also agrees that, although it is possible to calculate how much the reduction would be, it is not possible to say what would be, exactly, the value of the liter of gasoline sold to consumers by gas stations.
“Today, the fuel reference price has been frozen since November. This November price is totally out of step with today’s price. If this application of the rates is carried out, there is a probability that the states will release the reference price.
In other words, lower the rate. If the states have released this, the base will increase, which will focus on 17% or 18%, which will reduce the collection. Therefore, it is not possible to be sure that there will be this reduction in the value of fuels”, he explained.
According to him, although it is possible to say that gasoline prices will fall with the law of the ceiling for charging ICMS, he does not believe that the value will have a drastic reduction. Viana says that the “ICMS factor” is not what is causing fuel prices to rise, but rather the “exchange rate variation, the international price of oil and the policy of the import parity price (PPI)”.
The estimates given by the former State Secretary of Finance of Rio are the same as those given by the Instituto Combustível Legal. According to the agency’s survey, R$ 1.15 less in gasoline in Rio de Janeiro would be the biggest reduction in the country. Then come the states of Minas Gerais (-R$0.94 in the price of gasoline), Piauí (-R$0.91), Rio Grande do Sul (-R$0.86) and Goiás (-R$0. 85).
Impacts on diesel
On the other hand, the institute calculates that there would be an increase in the value of diesel. In Rio de Janeiro, the adjustment may be R$0.25, in São Paulo, R$0.18. The increase in RJ would be the largest in the country.
The states of Rio Grande do Sul also stand out, with an increase of R$0.24, Santa Catarina (R$0.23) and Paraná (R$0.25). On the other hand, considering the ICMS ceiling, there would be a reduction in the price of diesel in the states of Alagoas (-R$0.05), Amapá (-R$0.05), Bahia (-R$0.05), Ceará (-R$0.05), Maranhão (-R$0.07), Paraíba (-R$0.05), Piauí (-R$0.05), Rio Grande do Norte (-R$0.05 ) and Sergipe (-R$ 0.10).
This difference occurs because the ICMS on diesel has a lower incidence, with a national average of 13.8% on the value of this fuel. The national average of ICMS on gasoline is 28.1%, that is, higher than the modal rate of ICMS – which can vary between 17% and 18% of the ceiling.
According to the director of Instituto Combustível Brasil, Carlo Faccio, states in the South and Southeast regions already adopt rates lower than 17%. “In this case, these states will not suffer reductions,” he explained.
Faccio calculates that the impact of diesel alone with the project approved in the Chamber would be more than R$ 6.7 billion in losses for the states.
Source: CNN Brasil
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