IMF raises global outlook for 20 years down 4.4% warning of deterioration in emerging economies
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its 2020 global economic outlook to minus 4.4% on the 13th, up from the minus 5.2% shown in June. He pointed out that developed countries and China are recovering at a faster pace than expected from the lockdown (city blockade) caused by the outbreak of the new coronavirus.
However, economic losses in 20-25 due to unemployment, bankruptcy, debt, etc. due to the economic slowdown may reach up to $ 28 trillion, and the global medium-term growth rate after 2009 may remain around 3.5%. Recognized that there is.
The global economic outlook for 2009 is forecast to be + 5.2%. However, the outlook for many emerging economies has deteriorated and the pace of economic resumption has slowed as the corona infection continues to spread, and it has been revised downward by 0.2 points from June.
Gita Gopinato, chief economist at the IMF, said the $ 12 trillion fiscal mobilization by governments around the world and the central bank’s monetary easing measures eased the impact of the Corona disaster, arguing that continued support is needed. “If the situation surrounding the corona sickness worsens and the potential for treatment and vaccine development recedes, the damage to economic activity will be severe and likely to be amplified by severe financial market turmoil.” showed that.
It also warned of the gap between major countries and China, which are recovering at a faster pace, and low-income countries.
Regarding the outlook by country / region, the IMF forecasts this year’s gross domestic product (GDP) to decline by 4.3%. It has been revised up significantly from the 8% decrease as of June. On the other hand, in 2009, it was revised downward to 3.1% under the expectation that additional corona economic measures will not be implemented.
Japan is forecast to grow by 5.3% this year and 2.3% next year.
The euro area has been revised upward to 8.3% this year, up from 10.2% in June. However, reflecting the disparity in the pace of recovery in the region, Germany predicted a 6% decrease and Spain a 12.8% decrease. Eurozone GDP is projected to increase by 5.2% in 2009.
China is the only country expected to grow positively this year, with a 1.9% increase. Next year, it is forecast to increase by 8.2%, achieving the growth rate for the first time in about 10 years.
However, the growth rate of emerging countries excluding China this year was minus 5.7%, down from minus 5% as of June.