The Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex), regarding the results of the trade balance for the first quarter of 2022, pointed out that agriculture led the performance of Brazilian exports, while the extractive industry leveraged imports, both in terms of values and in volume. In the period, the increase in the prices of imported goods surpassed that of exported items.
The data, released this Tuesday (19) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV Ibre), show that average import prices increased 32.8% from January to March this year, compared to the same period. of 2021.
According to economist Lia Valls, an associate researcher at FGV IBRE, the rise in imports should harm the price of products sold in the country and directly impact inflation.
“If last year the imported volume was increasing, this year there was an increase in the price of imports, which exceed the prices of exports and, with that, there was a low growth in the volume of imported products”, he explains.
The decline in the volume of imports in the comparison between the first quarters of 2022 and 2021 was 4.3%. Exports, on the other hand, grew by 9.5%. In terms of value, exports increased 19.4% year-on-year and imports, 21.5%.
Another highlighted point was the spread of imported prices. There was a rise of 53.1% in commodities and 30.8% in non-commodities. In terms of imported volume, non-commodities registered a drop of 5.7% and commodities, an increase of 18.9%.
For Valls, this scenario was expected, since the increase in prices was already happening in the country. However, the expert says that this increase in the value of imported was higher than she imagined and cites possible reasons for the movement.
“We are under the effect of external shocks in commodity prices, and this not only in Brazil. There is also the disorganization of production chains that also affect prices and that have not yet been reorganized, in addition to the recent closure of China due to Covid-19. In other words, we have a very uncertain scenario, especially in relation to the effect of the war in Ukraine, as we do not know how long it will last,” he commented.
The economist made an analysis for the medium term and, in her view, this external shock should not end anytime soon. Valls believes that prices will not continue to increase, but will remain at very high levels for some time.
Source: CNN Brasil
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