The achievement of the first cryptocurrency level of $ 200,000 by the end of the year is “extremely unlikely”. This opinion was shared by 10X Research specialists.
$ 200,000 Bitcoin? The Math Says Otherwise
Actionable Market Insights
In OUR JULY 30 Report, “Why the $ 140,000 Bitcoin Target Isnomet as Easy as it Sounds,“ We Estimated a 54% Probability of Bitcoin Reaching $ 140,000 YEAR-EEND TARGET-BUT with a Clear Download Bias, as We … pic.twitter.com/q3evvodwlu
– 10x research (@10x_Research) August 26, 2025
They estimate the probability of bitcoin growth to $ 140,000 only in 54%. The pessimism of analysts is associated with three key factors:
- slowdown in institutional tributaries;
- large -scale sales from the miners;
- The traditional weakness of the third quarter in which bitcoin always demonstrates poor dynamics.
Cryptoquant confirms fears. The coefficient of purchase and sale of the first cryptocurrency dropped to -0.945, which indicates the dominance of sellers. According to the observations of the analyst under the pseudonym Gaah, similar levels were observed at the peak in November 2021, after which the correction began.
Polymarket forecast users share skepticism. Only 9% believe in reaching Bitcoin $ 200,000. A more realistic goal is $ 125,000, the probability of which is 71%.
$ 160,000 to Christmas
Economist Timothy Peterson predicted the growth of bitcoin to $ 160,000 by the end of the year. Based on historical data, he noted that in 70% of cases the first cryptocurrency rises in price from late August to the end of December with an average yield of 44%.
Under such conditions, the Catholic Christmas rate can reach $ 160,000.
However, the expert emphasized that his observations are rather a guideline than a strict rule. For example, he excluded 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2022 as atypical due to unique market and economic conditions.
At the time of writing, bitcoin is traded at $ 111,900.
Recall that at the end of August, the analyst noticed on the schedule of Bitcoin the repetition of the II quarter pattern. Then the asset reached a historical maximum of $ 112,000 and fell to $ 98,000.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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