If the elections were held today, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) would have a good chance of winning the election in the first round. This is what most opinion polls point out. In an eventual runoff, Lula’s slack over the other candidates remains significant.
And this after the scandals of the monthly allowance, petrolão and 580 days in jail accused of corruption. For most of the elite, who do not like the former president, it seems difficult to understand. But, in fact, it is a simple phenomenon to analyze and a direct consequence of Covid-19.
The pandemic, which has killed more than 600,000 Brazilians, left a legacy of high inflation, misery and unemployment. Although the job market is recovering, Brazil still has 13 million people out of work. The IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) should close the year with an increase close to 10%. And the economy has not grown for at least two quarters, which configures a technical recession.
A survey by the Datafolha Institute points out that health has returned to the main concern of Brazilians, with 24% of the citations, which did not happen until the past elections, since the government of former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB), when the hyperinflation. Still under the impact of Operation Lava Jato, 2018 was the point outside the curve with corruption at the top of the concerns.
For next year’s election, the spontaneous mentions of Brazilians to economic problems are also impressive. Right after health comes unemployment (14%), economy in general (12%), hunger and misery (8%) and inflation (7%). If we add all these up, we come to 41%.
This means that at least 4 in 10 Brazilians are concerned only with surviving – Covid and the economic devastation caused by the disease. These data are fully consistent with the fact that 2/3 of the Brazilian population earns less than three minimum wages.
President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has always realized the impact that the pandemic would have on the economy. But, according to public health specialists and economists, it was wrong to conduct both. It took time to buy vaccines and continues to advertise against the immunizing agent.
The president also adopted a bellicose posture, particularly with the Judiciary, which generated insecurity and weighed on the price of economic assets. With Congressional support, it circumvented the fiscal rules, which ended up wreaking havoc. The Brazilian stock market has fallen 12% this year against global markets.
Bolsonaro now instituted a more robust income transfer program for the poorest in December, but it remains unclear whether people will effectively link Auxílio Brasil to the current government. It doesn’t help that the PTB Bolsa Família card is still used to withdraw money.
And that’s where Lula comes in. “The former president will suffer many attacks from opponents during the campaign and will hardly win in the first round. But he has a very positive recall, from the one who put food on the table”, said Mauro Paulino, director of Datafolha, to the column.
The ex-president will try at all costs to hide his successor, who is also a PT member, Dilma Rousseff. It was during her government that the country entered a serious recession because of the debacle in fiscal management. But so far neither Bolsonaro nor the third way candidates have convinced them that they can help those most in need the most.
See the pre-candidates for the presidency in 2022
Reference: CNN Brasil
I am Sophia william, author of World Stock Market. I have a degree in journalism from the University of Missouri and I have worked as a reporter for several news websites. I have a passion for writing and informing people about the latest news and events happening in the world. I strive to be accurate and unbiased in my reporting, and I hope to provide readers with valuable information that they can use to make informed decisions.
