The Trade Confidence Index (Icom) dropped 0.4 point from December 2021 to January, to 84.9 points, informed this Friday, 28, the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV).
With the decline, Icom was at its lowest level since April last year, when it had reached 84.1 points, at the height of the second wave of Covid-19, which hit the country in early 2021. In quarterly moving averages, Icom dropped 3.1 points, the fifth straight drop.
According to FGV, the January drop represents a slowdown in the negative sequence that started at the end of last year.
“The negative result was influenced by the perception of a drop in sales volume at the moment. The prospects for the coming months improve, but it is still too early to celebrate, considering the level below the neutral level of the index. High inflation, low average worker income, falling consumer confidence and high interest rates seem to be factors that pressured trade confidence at this lower level”, says a note released by FGV.
In January, Icom’s fall was driven by the perception in relation to the present moment. The Current Situation Index (ISA-COM) dropped 3.5 points to 80.5 points, the lowest level since March 2021, when it stood at 75.9 points. The Expectations Index (IE-COM) rose 2.7 points to 90.0 points.
According to the FGV, there were drops in three of the six main segments of commerce monitored by the survey.
The sequence of falls in Icom in recent months has brought the confidence level of the segments closer, according to the dispersion indicator below, informed the FGV.
“The Icom standard deviation of the industry segments reached 14.9 points in December 2020, being the record of the series. After this critical period, the dispersion between the segments fluctuated throughout 2021 as a result of the effects of the pandemic on the sector’s activity. In recent months, this dispersion has fallen again, showing an approximation between the segments, but in a non-virtuous way, at a low level”, says the note from FGV.
The January Commerce Survey collected information from 726 companies between the 3rd and 26th of the month.
Reference: CNN Brasil
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