India: Economic growth to slow next year amid rising borrowing costs – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs economists expect India’s economic growth to slow next year as Consumer demand is likely to weaken as borrowing costs rise and benefits of reopening post-pandemic disappear.

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“The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could grow by 5.9% in the calendar year 2023compared to the 6.9% estimated for this year”.

“Growth will likely be a two-part story, with a slower first half as reopening momentum fades, and monetary tightening weighs on domestic demandIn the second half, growth is likely to pick up again as global growth picks upthe drag on net exports decreases, and the investment cycle picks up.”

“We see a rebound in the investment cycle towards the second half of 2023 that will help India’s growth rebound.”

“Upside inflation risks mean the Reserve Bank of India will likely raise the benchmark rate by 50 basis points in December and another 35 basis points in February, to reach a terminal rate of 6.75%.”

Source: Fx Street

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