Suan Teck Kin, UOB Group Research Director, and Jester Koh, Associate Economist, discuss the recent release of India’s third quarter GDP data.
Main conclusions
India’s real GDP grew 7.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023-24 (July-September quarter), above Bloomberg and UOB expectations of a 6.8% year-on-year increase, but slightly ahead. below the first Q23-24 (April-June quarter) reading of 7.8% year-on-year.
Perspectives – We expect third quarter (October-December) GDP to be boosted by strong demand for year-end festivals and public spending on infrastructure. Private sector investments could rebound after the 18th Lok Sabha (lower house) elections (April-May 2024), as electoral uncertainty dissipates and public infrastructure projects continue to advance with the newly formed cabinet. We upgrade our GDP forecast for FY23-24 to 6.9% (previously: 6.5%) and expect growth to moderate to 6.4% in FY24-25 as tight financial conditions gradually weigh on activity. economical.
Source: Fx Street
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