India’s dependence on Russian weapons links Monti to Putin

Despite the success of the US-led campaign to isolate Russia on the world stage, India has emerged as a great democracy reluctant to criticize Vladimir Putin – and billions of dollars in arms purchases mean that is unlikely. to change soon, according to Bloomberg.

The government of Prime Minister Narendra Monti is facing more pressure from the other members of the Quartet – the United States, Japan and Australia – to help push Russia toward a ceasefire. After meeting with Monti in New Delhi on Saturday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called for more cooperation between the democracies, noting that Putin’s war “shook the world order.” Monty, on the other hand, only talked about financial issues.

Monti is scheduled to hold a virtual summit on Monday with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, while US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland – who later co-ordinated the US response to Ukraine – is expected to visit New Delhi. the week.

THE India, the world’s largest buyer of Russian weapons, plans to react by arguing that markets are needed to deal with China’s growing military aspirations and that of its other neighbor, Pakistan.

The Monti government will also say that the alternatives to Russian weapons are very expensive, according to people familiar with the situation, who asked not to be named because they do not have permission to speak to the media.

India has more than 250 Russian-made Su-30 MKi fighter jets, seven Kilo-class submarines and more than 1,200 Russian-made T-90 tanks – all of which have been in operation for another decade. About $ 10 billion worth of weapons systems are under way, including a nuclear-powered submarine to be leased to India and S-400 air defense systems.

The Indian Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside of normal business hours.

Despite efforts to differentiate, “India’s military equipment is still almost 70% Russian.” said Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the External Relations Council and author of Why Nations Rise: Narratives and the Path to Great Power. India “must continue to rely on Russia for spare parts, maintenance and upgrades,” he added.

The cost to India of replacing all of its Russian equipment is staggering. Whole India’s defense budget for 2021-22 amounts to $ 70 billion and a long-delayed plan to supply 114 fighter jets to upgrade its fleet and replace some older Russian fighters is estimated to cost India between $ 15 billion and $ 18 billion, even if produced domestically, people said .

“New Delhi also lacks options for replacing military systems, such as air defense platforms that are not readily available elsewhere,” said Ian Hall, a professor of international relations at Griffith University and author of Modi and the Reinvention of Indian Foreign Policy. “.

“We look forward to moving forward with this cooperation,” he said, noting that India had recently handled more orders for Russian MiG-29 fighter jets, helicopters and anti-tank weapons. “And I hope that part of what is happening with the extreme criticism that Russia has faced is that India will find that it is time to distance itself further.”

India also wants to avoid Russia coming even closer to Pakistan, which is more likely if the Monti government joins US allies in scolding President Vladimir Putin. India and Pakistan have waged three wars and their armies remain on high alert.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan led the country’s first delegation to Moscow in two months last month, just as Putin’s invasion began. Last year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Pakistan as Moscow sought to increase its prestige in the region, particularly in Afghanistan following the chaotic withdrawal of the United States.

Pakistan was the eighth largest arms buyer in the world in 2017-2021, with Russia accounting for a small share of imports. India is concerned that more Russian arms markets could “provide Pakistan with a quality advantage”, according to Richard M. Rossow, Wadhwani Chair in US-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Nevertheless, India will find it difficult to maintain a “truly neutral position” without alienating the United States and other Quartet countries, especially since Russia has viewed the New Delhi positions as “silent support,” Miller told the Foreign Affairs Council. .

“The crisis in Ukraine is not a geographically limited regional European crisis that does not affect India,” he said. “It has implications for the future of the liberal international order.”