The Industry Confidence Index (ICI) rose 1.2 points in December, after falling 3.6 points in November, informed this Wednesday (28), the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). With the result, the index reached 93.3 points and interrupted a trajectory of three consecutive declines.
The Installed Capacity Utilization Level (Nuci) retreated by 0.2 percentage points, to 79.6%, the lowest level since May 2021 (77.8%).
According to the FGV, there was an increase in confidence in 11 of the 19 industrial segments monitored in December. The Current Situation Index (ISA) rose 2.0 points to 93.8 points. The result was driven by growth of 2.8 points in the indicator that measures the current situation of business, to 92.5 points. There was also a perception of a slight improvement in demand in the period, with an increase of 0.6 points, causing the indicator to rise to 92.1 points.
As for stocks, there was also an increase of 2.3 points, rising to 102.5 points – when above 100 points, the indicator signals that the industry operates with stocks above the desirable level.
The Expectations Index (EI) rose 0.2 points to 92.8 points. The FGV observes, for the fourth consecutive month, a worsening of the indicator that measures job prospects, which fell by 4.2 points, to 95.1 points, the lowest level since July 2020 (93.0 points).
On the other hand, the indicator that measures production prospects for the next three months rose 3.0 points, to 94.1 points. The trend for business over the six-month horizon rose 1.7 points to 89.5 points, but the result remains below 100 points since September 2021, when it reached 102.7 points.
“After three months of decline, industry confidence improved in December, but it was not enough to recover the losses incurred in the year. Part of the industry suffered from input problems, and another from reduced demand, leading to an increase in inventories in 2022,” says Ibre/FGV economist Stéfano Pacini, in a note. “The December result shows an improvement in the current situation influenced by a slight increase in demand and improvement in inventories. Despite the occasional improvement, the confidence level remains low in all categories of use and in most segments. With regard to perceptions of the future, businessmen remain cautious with regard to hiring, possibly influenced by a scenario of economic slowdown and contractionary monetary policy”, he adds.
Source: CNN Brasil
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