Inter raises GDP forecast for 2022 and 2023 and sees inflation decelerating

In a report released this Monday (19), Inter revised the projection for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2022 from 2.3% to 2.8%. In addition, the bank raised its growth forecast for 2023 from 0.7% to 1.0%.

According to the institution, after the higher-than-expected growth in the market in the 2nd quarter of this year, the data for July and August point to a new high in activity.

“For 2023, we should still have a slowdown driven by weaker global demand and restrictive interest rates here, but even so, GDP should grow close to 1%, driven by the investment cycle,” says the report.

In addition, the bank projects a deceleration of inflation, given that the fall in the prices of fuel, food and other raw materials, driven by the lower
commodity prices on the international market, should keep goods inflation low until the end of 2022.

For this year, the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) was revised from 6.5% to 5.8%. For 2023, the bank maintained its expectation for the index at 4.7%.

The main risk for the Brazilian economy, according to Inter, is the external scenario.

“High inflation in the US and monetary policy adjustments in several countries should result in weaker global demand in 2023. The drop in activity in China, especially slower construction growth, also poses risks for the recession scenario in the coming quarters. ”, says the note.

Selic rate

This Wednesday (21), the Central Bank (BC) releases the new decision on the basic interest rate, the Selic. In its report, Inter predicts that the BC should maintain the rate at 13.75%.

The assessment is that, despite falling inflation, including market expectations for next year, the statement should still be tougher, indicating that the rate should remain long for an extended period, “weighing in the scenario the uncertainty about potential new public spending that could impact demand next year”.

Founder and chairman of the board of MRV Engenharia, businessman Rubens Menin is also the controller of Inter, Log Commercial Properties and CNN Brazil .