The banks JPMorgan, Credit Suisse and Haitong reduced their projections for the Gross Domestic Product (START) from Brazil, after the release of lower-than-expected numbers for the retail and services sectors in September. Before them, in October, the Itaú had already reduced from 5.3% to 5.0% its growth forecast for the GDP of 2021, and indicated a decrease of 0.5% in 2022.
O Swiss credit it reduced its forecast for this year’s GDP, from 5% to 4.8%, and also started to estimate a retraction of 0.5% next year – compared to the previous projection of a 0.6% increase. In a report, the bank says that activity is hampered by short-term factors, such as the scarcity of inputs for the industry, but also by persistent problems.
“The current high level of inflation is likely to remain high due to high inertia in the country, the recent tightening of financial conditions is unlikely to retreat sharply as interest rates will rise further and the fiscal framework has recently been weakened,” says the report .
Haitong, on the other hand, reduced its projections from 4.9% to 4.2% this year, and from 0.5% to a drop of 0.3% in 2022. industrial production (-0.4%) and in the services sector (-0.6%) in September, Haitong started to see GDP contraction in the third quarter of this year (from 0.15% to -0.6%).
For the fourth quarter, the growth projection was reduced from 0.3% to 0.1%. “We believe the chance of a technical recession in 2021 is high,” writes the bank’s chief economist, Marcos Ross.
I o JPMorgan estimates that GDP growth for 2021 will be 4.8%, not more than 5.0%. For 2022, the estimate of zero GDP variation was maintained.
Inflation and interest
Haitong Bank also raised its estimates for the HICP (Broad Consumer Price Index) from 2021 (from 9.20% to 10.40%) and from 2022 (from 5.0% to 5.20%), the latter already above the target ceiling that must be achieved by the Central Bank (BC), of 5.0%.
The information is from the newspaper The State of São Paulo.
Reference: CNN Brasil