President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s (PT) stance in relation to the war in Ukraine could alienate him from foreign leaders and reduce Brazil’s dialogue with the international community, according to evaluations by ambassadors from Western countries stationed in Brasília.
A CNN spoke privately with three heads of diplomatic representations in the Brazilian capital and heard words like “annoying”, “disappointing” and “unfortunate” to describe Lula’s speeches.
They all converge on the analysis that the PT’s victory was very well received abroad and there was satisfaction with Brazil’s return to the international scene, after years of tumultuous relations with the government of Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
Lula, according to the description of the ambassadors, has accumulated credit for his previous administrations in three key areas: defense of democracy, respect for human rights, protection of the Amazon/combating climate change.
However, a European ambassador says: “The world of 2023 is not the world of 2003 or 2010, which accepted and even asked for a greater presence from Brazil. Today the global environment is one of geopolitical division and the space for Brazil to play a leading role, even due to the loss of economic importance, is smaller”.
According to this foreign representative, it is illusory to believe that an equidistant relationship between the West and China can be maintained, benefiting from the best that each one can offer and without the need to make choices. “At some point, the Brazilian government will need to choose which side is closer,” he says.
An observation made by this diplomat: Lula was in Washington and did not criticize China, but he took advantage of his trip to Beijing to attack the United States and insinuate that the White House intentionally prolongs the conflict in Ukraine.
A point of consensus among the ambassadors: Lula’s recent stance does not in the least jeopardize Brazil’s economic and commercial relationship with its countries. However, it hinders the work of deepening relationships and opening new partnership fronts. It creates a climate of distrust and less cooperation to explore other bilateral agendas.
The harshest criticisms arise when talking about the rapprochement between Lula and his assistants with Russia. One of the aforementioned episodes, which went virtually unnoticed in the Brazilian press, was a vote in the UN Security Council last month.
On March 27, Russia presented a draft resolution to establish investigations into “acts of sabotage” in the Nordstream gas pipeline, in the Baltic Sea, which flows Russian gas to Europe.
The resolution was rejected, but there were three votes in favour: Russia, China and Brazil. “It is a very bad sign to be standing next to Vladimir Putin in any vote,” says one ambassador.
Celso Amorim’s discreet trip to the Kremlin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Brasília left the international community on high alert.
For the diplomats heard by the CNN recent statements disqualify Brazil from being a potential facilitator of a peace process, due to an alleged imbalance in the treatment given to Ukraine.
One of the criticisms targets a comment by Amorim to the CNN last week, when he said that the facilitation of a peace process requires countries “militarily and emotionally” distant from the war.
“If the United States had invaded Venezuela, would Brazil be emotionally distant?” asks a European ambassador.
No one is talking about an immediate removal — to continue the current level of contacts with Moscow — of Western leaders. In the very short term, one could even say the opposite: Lula was invited to go to the G-7 summit in Japan, he is going to Portugal and Spain next week, he should receive the Frenchman Emmanuel Macron soon.
What is foreseen, among the diplomats interviewed by the CNN , is a careful monitoring of the next steps of the Brazilian government. If the escalation of criticism of the United States and the European Union continues, the dialogue tends to gradually decrease from now on.
“If Brazil aligns itself with Russian views on the war, there will be no possibility of participating in any peace process”, says an ambassador.
This same diplomat adds what he considers an optimistic reading of Lula’s posture: he, deep down, would condemn Putin and his hostilities against Ukraine like any other Western leader.
I would only be waving a more anti-Americanist speech to please sectors of the Brazilian left, but without believing in all the statements he makes.
Source: CNN Brasil
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