Even with the high dollar and high ticket prices, the recovery in demand for international flights in Brazil gained traction in 2022. Despite starting the year with 48.2% of what was verified before the pandemic, it reached 77.8% in October, the most recent data from the National Civil Aviation Agency (Anac).
In the same period, the domestic sector, which recovered more quickly, increased from 84.4% to 91.8%.
In the accumulated result for the first ten months of the year, however, international demand stood at 66.3%. Specialists say that the total recovery of the segment should only occur in 2024, while the domestic one can be seen this year.
For consultant André Castellini, partner at Bain & Company and specialist in the airline industry, international demand at the same level as in 2019 should only be registered at the end of 2024. This, however, will still depend on the behavior of the dollar and the economy in the next two years, he says.
For the director in Brazil of the International Air Transport Association, Dany Oliveira, ticket prices and the dollar are not the main obstacles for the international segment to recover.
The commercial strategy manager of Latam Brasil, Douglas Cabrera Lopes, says that the price of the American currency did not delay the recovery of the company’s international demand in relation to what was projected.
He claims, however, that there was a migration of demand, with trips to Europe advancing more quickly than to the United States. Latam estimates that demand will reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024. “But the scenario is volatile and depends on the global situation.”
The Air France-KLM group also hopes to resume the 2019 level in 2024. This estimate, however, is for the company’s general operation, not just for Brazil. According to the commercial director of the group in South America, Steven van Wijk, in the country, Air France already has the same frequency of flights as before the pandemic in Guarulhos and Fortaleza and KLM, in Guarulhos and Rio.
pace of resumption
As in the domestic segment, the recovery in the international segment has had a different pace for each company. At Latam, the main company in the country in this market, demand in January 2022 was only 35% of that registered in the same month of 2019, but, in October, it reached 76%.
The company is also operating 21 destinations abroad. Before the pandemic, there were 26. “The missing routes depend on the economic context to be resumed.”
At Gol, one of the companies where the international segment recovered more slowly, demand reached 80.6% in October compared to the same month of 2019. In the accumulated result for the year, however, it is still at 40%. The company currently serves 13 international destinations; Before, there were 16.
Azul, which reached 96% of pre-pandemic international demand in October, has 69% in the first ten months of 2022. Also in the accumulated result for the year, United and Air France-KLM reached 87% and 82%, respectively.
Source: CNN Brasil
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