Interruption in the 3-day series of gains for oil – ‘Jump’ 4.4% for the WTI in April

A mixed picture of oil prices, with US crude interrupting a three-day earnings streak on Friday. However, on a weekly and monthly basis, it closed in positive territory, as fears about supplies from Russia outweighed the impact on demand from lockdowns in China.

“Oil has started to rise” as the likelihood of a European embargo on Russian oil increases, as Germany appears to be no longer opposed to the sector, “said Carsten Fritsch, a Commerzbank analyst.

“This change of attitude is not surprising, given that German Economy Minister Habeck said a few days ago that Germany now imports only 12% of its oil from Russia.

“German representatives in the European Union’s institutions on Thursday objected to a full embargo on Russian supplies, provided Berlin would be given enough time to find alternative supplies,” the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing government officials.

Diesel prices, meanwhile, have soared amid limited supplies of spirits on both sides of the Atlantic, Fritsch said. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that stockpiles of spirits fell 1.4 million barrels last week, down from forecasts of just 100,000 barrels.

In this climate, his June contract Brent strengthened today by 1.6% or $ 1.75 to $ 109.34 a barrel.

The crude type West Texas Intermediate saw its own June contract fall 0.6% to $ 104.69 a barrel.

In weekhowever, the WTI strengthened by 2.6%, while even better was the monthly performance with gains of 4.4% in April.

Wood Mackenzie chief economist Yanting Zhou said “oil market volatility is set to continue, with more and more widespread lockdowns in China from May onwards pushing down short-term risks to oil demand.” in China, but also prices “.

However, concerns about demand levels appear to be offset by OPEC + ‘s intention not to increase production at its forthcoming meeting on May 5, sources told Reuters.

After all, according to Reuters, citing a document of the Ministry of Economy of Russia, the country’s oil production may decline by up to 17% in 2022.

At the same time, Barclays analysis estimates that a possible embargo on Russian energy products will push prices to higher levels, triggering a mild recession.

According to the British bank, due to the great dependence of EU countries on Russian oil and gas products, any restrictions on flows would put further pressure on energy prices and could even lead to the implementation of an energy card.