Invasion of the Capitol two years ago amid crisis in the US House

The second anniversary of the invasion of the Capitol coincides with an unprecedented deadlock – since the American Civil War – in the election of the president of the House of Representatives, and chaos in the Republican Party (GOP). How are these two events connected, and what do they reveal about the future of American democracy, the GOP, and former president and candidate Donald Trump?

A group of 21 Republican deputies, belonging to the so-called Freedom Bench, prevented the election of the leader of the party in the House, Kevin McCarthy, for the presidency of the House. The deadlock surpassed the mark of nine ballots, needed in 1923 to fill the office.

In the other major crisis, in 1856, there were 133 votes, over two months. But at the time there were four parties in the House, plus internal factions representing Republicans and Democrats from the North and South of the country.

After the Civil War, bipartisanship was installed in practice, which made the practice simpler: the majority bench elects the president of the Chamber, and the minority, the leader of the opposition.

On January 6, 2021, then-President Donald Trump called on thousands of followers, part of them armed, to go to the Capitol to prevent the certification of Joe Biden’s electoral victory.

In the current crisis, a tenth of the Republican bench of 222 deputies prevented the election of its leader, who had the support of the other 201. 218 are needed, unless abstentions reduce the number of voters.

The invasion of the Capitol was a crime, for which more than 900 people answer, including Trump himself. The refusal of the 21 rebels to elect Kevin McCarthy does not violate the law. It is what Americans call a “hard ball”, a kick that does not violate the rules of the game but whose intention is not to score a goal, but to hit the opponent.

In both cases, it is the minority trying to impose itself on the majority. It is also an impulse to create chaos, weaken institutions and discredit democracy itself.

In defending their different candidates for Speaker of the House (including Trump), the deputies claimed that “Washington”, Congress or the “system” is bankrupt. Just as Trump said, in the 2016 campaign, that it was necessary to “drain the swamp”, referring to the American capital.

These are speeches that resonate with the feelings of many Americans, who feel that politicians make deals and use the government for their own benefit. Negotiation, which is the basis of democracy, therefore becomes something dirty, a betrayal of the people.

In every speech, the rebels attacked the way federal appropriations are voted, by leaders’ agreements, without public debate. However, after McCarthy accepted their demand to vote on the budget again in sectoral committees, and no longer in “bus packages”, which cover all areas, none of the 21 votes turned in favor of him.

The Republican leader made two other concessions that would drastically deprive him of power. He pledged not to finance any more campaigns in the Republican primaries, with donations from the Super PAC, the party’s main collection committee, which he controls. Trumpists accuse him of directing resources to moderate pre-candidates.

McCarthy also agreed to reduce the minimum necessary to present a request for the impeachment of the president of the House to only one representative. By current rule, it takes half plus one of the entire House, i.e. 218.

These were the rebels’ demands, but even after they were met, they didn’t give in. Two Republican congressmen who support McCarthy told the CNN that it is “impossible to negotiate with terrorists”, referring to the perception that the only objective of the rebels is to sow chaos. “Terrorism” was also a term used to describe the invasion of the Capitol.

Trump made an appeal on Wednesday morning (4) for them to vote for McCarthy, after speaking with the leader by phone.

“Very good conversations took place yesterday (Tuesday) night, and now it’s time for our great Republican House members to vote for Kevin, close the issue, take the win. Republicans, do not turn a great triumph into a gigantic and embarrassing defeat”, he urged, referring to the November elections, which gave the party a majority in the House.

The appeal did not change a single vote, although the Freedom Caucus identifies with Trump. Of the 21 deputies, 16 had Trump’s support in the party’s primaries, according to a survey by CNN . The episode, therefore, ended up reducing the perception of power around the former president, in the same way as has occurred since the invasion of the Capitol.

A House special committee, dominated by Democrats, who previously had a majority in the House, presented a report on the investigations into the invasion, which accuses Trump of four crimes, including insurrection. An independent prosecutor appointed by the Department of Justice, who was already investigating three possible crimes, received the 845-page report, with more than 1,000 testimonies.

The impasse in the election of the president prevented the start of work in the Chamber and may reinforce in many conservative voters the fatigue in relation to the instability caused by right-wing radicalism. That fatigue began with Trump’s refusal to accept electoral defeat, which culminated in his pressures on state election officials to change the vote count and in the invasion of the Capitol.

Frustration with Trump’s actions was expressed in the 2018 elections, when Republicans lost their majority in Congress; of 2020, when the president failed to re-elect himself; and 2022, when the Democrats maintained their majority in the Senate and many Trumpist candidates were not elected.

In addition to Trump, the Republican Party itself has suffered from the actions of right-wing radicals, which scare away moderate voters, who have historically oscillated between the two parties.

In recent days, Democrats have made no secret of how much fun they are enjoying the Republican chaos, and have not heeded calls to abstain from voting, and thus reduce the number of votes needed to elect the president. After all, as Napoleon Bonaparte said, “Never interfere when your enemy is making a mistake.”