A partnership between the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM) and the World Bank resulted in the creation of an advanced analysis platform capable of predicting deforestation and estimating future deforested areas in the Legal Amazon states.
The tool combines macroeconomic analyzes with local governance data to anticipate the loss of native vegetation in the region, offering projections for the formulation of public policies and conservation strategies.
Based on the elements of the technical note “Space-time scenarios for deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon”, recently published, the researchers were able to design three distinct scenarios, each with its unique implications.
In the “Business as Usual” scenario, which only considers historical trends without taking into account macroeconomic factors, it is estimated that accumulated deforestation between 2020 and 2025 will reach around 50 thousand km2, which is 35% greater than indicated by the scenarios that take other factors into account.
The results also point to the spatial distribution of projected deforestation. Regions such as the center of Pará and the south of Amazonas appear as high-risk areas, confirming a trend already observed by experts since 2018 of the concentration of deforestation at the junction of the borders of Amazonas, Acre and Rondônia, called “Amacro”.
Furthermore, the models highlight the importance of governance in the allocation of public forests for conservation, demonstrating a reduction of up to 57% in deforestation in this type of area when appropriate policies are implemented.
The organizers point out that, however, it is crucial to note that even in the most optimistic scenarios, the lack of control mechanisms can result in deforestation “leaks” to other regions, such as agrarian reform settlements and rural properties, in addition to Conservation Units. .
The platform is now available for public consultation at https://forestatrisk.ipam.org.br
The detailed data obtained through these models is available in a panel developed by the World Bank with the aim of providing a basis for decision-making and actions aimed at preserving the Legal Amazon.
Source: CNN Brasil
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