A projection made by economist André Braz, from Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), at the request of the CNN shows that the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) should have a high of 1.10% to 1.15% in April, compared to March this year.
The official indicator will be released this Wednesday (11) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Braz says that the indicator for April should be high mainly due to the increase in fuel prices, but the index should not rise so much, as there was no new gasoline readjustment by Petrobras last month. The last one was in March.
“As the rise in fuel prices was very noticeable, it should remain on the radar, but not as much as in previous indices. The change in the price of gasoline, which is the fuel that weighs the most on the IPCA, has been going on for more than 30 days, so a small part of this increase will appear”, says the expert.
The economist explains that foods will also raise the indicator, especially in natura, that is, those that are not industrialized, such as fruits and vegetables. According to him, high demand and climate change contributed to this increase.
“The characteristic summer climate, which we left a short time ago, with heavy rains and intense sun punishes the culture of in natura. In addition, reduced supply has contributed to higher prices, such as carrots, potatoes and onions, which have risen sharply in the past month,” he says.
Another factor that can make the indicator rise not so significant is the price of energy. On April 16, the water scarcity flag came to an end.
“There will be a 6% drop in this month’s indicator, as the anticipation of the end of the water scarcity flag took place in mid-April. In all, there will be a drop of 12% in thirty days, which can positively influence this month’s inflation”, analyzes Braz.
Another item that should gain relevance, according to the economist, are home appliances and the service sector due to the increase in raw material and fuel costs. With a more optimistic tone for the next index, Braz points out that the IPCA for May will have lower prices, compared to the latest results.
Source: CNN Brasil
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