A projection made by economist André Braz, from Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), at the request of the CNNshows that the IPCA (National Consumer Price Index) is expected to rise from 0.85% to 0.9% in February, compared to the first month of 2022.
The official indicator will be released this Friday (11), by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The war will not impact the outcome of this inflation, according to Braz. He told CNN that this increase, in fact, will be mainly the result of school fees and in natura foods, that is, those that are not industrialized, such as fruits and vegetables.
“As the readjustment of school fees is always carried out in the month of February, this must be the main factor of inflation for the month. It weighs on the family budget and still rose more than 5% on average. So it will certainly have a greater prominence in this IPCA”, he says.
Braz pointed out that the continuous increase in in natura food is due to climatic variations caused by the summer. He notes that excess rain and heat reduce the supply of these products and, consequently, affect prices.
“We know that vegetables, vegetables and fruits do not tolerate these higher temperatures than in recent months. Torrential rains, which occurred in early February, also do not help in the cultivation of food. This causes the seasonal effect, which always happens in the summer and causes the price to increase,” she says.
According to him, in March, inflation should already have the impact of rising fuel prices. The economist’s expectation for the next month was at 0.7%, but with this rise in the values of these products, that number may jump to 1.10%.
“We were counting on slowdowns, but we should expect accelerations for the coming months. This can cause inflation for the year to rise. This is just the direct effect of increasing fuels at the pump. The indirect we will reap from the increase in diesel in urban and road transport, and it can rise and even raise the costs of other segments”, emphasizes the economist.
Braz also drew attention to the prices of grains that are rising, such as corn, soybeans and wheat. According to him, this fact should make the basic food basket more expensive and increase inflation for the year.
His projection was at 6.2%, but should rise to 7.5%.
Source: CNN Brasil
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