A projection made by economist André Braz, coordinator of the Consumer Price Index at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), at the request of the CNN shows that the IPCA (National Broad Consumer Price Index) should have a high of 0.65% to 0.72% in June, compared to the month of May this year.
The official indicator will be released this Friday (8) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
According to André Braz, the largest variation in the IPCA should come from the Clothing group, with a rise of 1.38%. The economist’s analysis points out that this increase is caused by the arrival of winter.
“Clothing must be at a high rate due to the entry of the autumn/winter collection, which normally makes the prices of this segment rise, since it is about the launch of a new collection. In addition, the high price of cotton and oil, which can generate polyester threads, also implies the value of this category, since it is a heated demand in the world”, says Braz.
In addition to clothing, the FGV professor says that food will also be one of the main factors for the increase in the June indicator. The price of milk, which goes through the off season and faces a rise in production costs, and wheat, due to the war in Eastern Europe, should show their impacts.
“Within food, which is one of the groups with one of the biggest variations, it is possible to see a big impact on dairy products, since milk is going up a lot in price. In addition, wheat is also likely to suffer some effect due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Another product that will be affected is carioca beans, as other beans were at more attractive prices and the producer reduced the planting of beans. In other words, the reduction in the supply of beans justifies the price increase”, explains the economist.
As in the month of May, the economist believes that airline tickets should be highlighted within the Transport group, as well as durable goods, such as home appliances, automobiles and electronic devices.
According to Braz, the IPCA for June should not yet show the effects of the reduction in the Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) for fuels and other areas. The expert points out that the main impact should occur in July.
Also according to him, the month of July may have deflation. With the drop that gasoline has shown in recent days, for the FGV professor, the reduction in ICMS and the fall in the price of electricity may give space for the IPCA to retreat.
*under supervision of Pauline Almeida
Source: CNN Brasil
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