IPEA reduces inflation forecast for 2022 from 6.6% to 5.7%

The Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea) revised downwards, for the second time in the year, the expectation for Brazilian inflation in 2022. According to the new survey released this Thursday (29), the projection of the Consumer Price Index Broad (IPCA) went from 6.6% to 5.7%.

According to the researchers, the most optimistic result is mainly influenced by electricity and gasoline, which fell by 20.5% and 19.3% in the accumulated period between January and August, respectively.

On the other hand, food at home still represents the greatest impact for Brazilians. The accumulated increase of 11.8% for this group in the first eight months of the year, compared to the same period in 2021, reflects the significant increases in milk and dairy products (40.2%) and baked goods (16.9%). .

“In the case of baked goods, the readjustments are still a reflection of the sharp rise in the price of wheat on the international market, which took place between February and May, due to the war in Eastern Europe, since Ukraine and Russia are responsible for 40% of all exports. of the input”, according to an excerpt from the IPEA survey.

Although to a lesser extent, increases of 7.3% in industrial goods and 5.8% in free services, again between January and August, also helped to avoid an even stronger deceleration of the IPCA.

Regarding the outlook for 2023, the inflation projection was maintained at 4.7%. According to Ipea, despite the worsening of the external scenario, with an increase in the risk on the exchange rate, the forecast is maintained due to the drop in commodity prices and the normalization of production chains after the Covid-19 pandemic.

In addition, the projection of a record grain harvest and the low probability of adverse weather events should provide a more moderate increase in food next year.