Iran – Nuclear program: Vienna talks resume in tense climate

After a five-month hiatus, negotiators on Iran’s nuclear program are meeting again in Vienna today, but the atmosphere is tense and analysts are not too optimistic about rescuing the 2015 international agreement.

Negotiators had halted talks in June in a positive atmosphere and said they were “close to an agreement”, but the election of new, super-conservative Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi changed that.

For months, Iran has ignored calls from the West to return to the negotiating table as its nuclear program continues to evolve.

The discussions are finally repeated, but not with the best omens.

Prior to his arrival in Austria, US envoy Rob Maley had commented that Iran’s recent actions “do not bode well.”

He added: “If they are delaying (the negotiations) while at the same time accelerating the pace of their nuclear program (…) then of course we are not prepared to be left with our hands crossed.”

“Dangerous situation”

Since the beginning of the year, Iran has crossed many red lines, increasing the rate of uranium enrichment to unprecedented levels and restricting the access of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors.

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, who is in charge of monitoring the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program, denounced last week, after a brief visit to Tehran, the lack of progress on many issues that remain open.

In order not to jeopardize the resumption of negotiations, the West avoided any critical announcement at the IAEA Board of Governors, which ended on Friday, but the United States threatened to convene an emergency meeting in December if the impasse remained.

“Iran’s refusal to reach a compromise with the IAEA casts a shadow over the forthcoming talks,” said Henry Roome, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group.

“The situation is becoming increasingly fragile,” Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association, told reporters.

“Although former US President Donald Trump started the crisis, Iranian actions are prolonging it,” he added. “They act as if Washington is going to back down first, but that pressure is a double-edged sword,” which could dispel any hope of rescuing the 2015 deal.

“Guess”

The 2015 agreement, also known as the Joint Integrated Action Plan (JAP), offered Tehran a partial lifting of international sanctions against it in exchange for a drastic reduction in its nuclear program, which came under strict UN control.

But the US unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under Trump presidency and reinstated sanctions.

In response, Iran has progressively abandoned some of its commitments under the agreement.

The Karaj complex, near Tehran, where a centrifuge plant is located, is of particular concern to the IAEA, which has not had access to it since June following an attack by Iran on Israel.

“Surveillance gaps fuel speculation about a secret Tehran atomic bomb program” whether or not there is evidence of it “and undermine confidence, Davenport warned.

Negotiations in Vienna are taking place at the Coburg Palace, where the 2015 agreement was reached.

The talks will start at around 14:00 local time, according to a diplomatic source.

Opposite the large Iranian delegation will be diplomats from the countries that have signed the agreement – Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China – while the United States will participate in the talks indirectly.

The equation must also take into account Israel, which is not participating in the negotiations. But the country’s foreign minister, Jair Lapid, is expected in Europe today, hoping to change the attitude of Britain and France.

Israel, Iran’s number one enemy, said it was “concerned about the intention to lift sanctions in exchange for insufficient restrictions on its nuclear program.”

SOURCE: AMPE