Iran is seeking Russia’s help to bolster its nuclear weapons program, US intelligence officials believe, while Tehran is looking for an alternative if a lasting nuclear deal with world powers fails to materialize.
Intelligence suggests that Iran is asking Russia for help in acquiring additional nuclear materials and with making nuclear fuel, sources briefed on the matter said. The fuel could help Iran power its nuclear reactors and could further shorten Iran’s so-called “escape time” to create a nuclear weapon.
Experts emphasized the CNN , however, that the risk of nuclear proliferation varies depending on which reactor the fuel is used. Nor is it clear whether Russia has agreed to help – the Kremlin has long been openly opposed to Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon.
But the Iranian proposal came amid an expanding Iran-Russia partnership that in recent months has included Iran sending drones and other equipment to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine, and Moscow potentially advising Tehran on how to suppress one. protest movement sweeping Iran. , said US officials.
The Biden administration is therefore watching with concern any new areas of cooperation between Iran and Russia. Any secret Russian assistance to Iran that could boost Iranian efforts to produce a nuclear weapon would also mark a significant shift in Russian policy, given Russia’s membership in the P5+1 group of countries that took part in negotiations to stop the country’s nuclear program. Will.
“As we said, the JCPOA is not on the agenda,” National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson told CNN , referring to the formal name of the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. “We have been working with partners to expose the growing ties between Iran and Russia – and hold them accountable. We will be firm in combating any cooperation that is contrary to our non-proliferation goals.”
The Iranian Mission to the UN and the Russian Foreign Ministry did not return requests for comment.
Ukraine claims Iran is seeking help from Russia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested last week that Iran was seeking Russia’s help with its nuclear program in exchange for military assistance it has given Moscow, but intelligence obtained by the US does not indicate the existence of an explicit compensation. quo, the sources said.
Instead, Iran’s proposals for Russia appear at least partially motivated by a belief among senior Iranian officials that a new nuclear deal will not be revived, or, if it is, will not last.
Informed intelligence sources told CNN that Iran’s concerns seemed more acute over the summer as it appeared to be approaching a new nuclear deal with the US and other world powers known as the P5+1 – a group that includes Russia. Iran’s fear was that a future government might back out of a deal, as the Trump administration did in 2018, so it sought a side deal with Russia that would allow it to reconstitute its nuclear program quickly if necessary.
THE CNN previously reported that Iran sought assurances from the US that a future government would not renege on the deal – a promise the US said it could not make.
Asked whether the growing Iran-Russia partnership was a factor in derailing negotiations on the nuclear deal, a senior administration official told CNN: the possibility of a return to the deal.” The official declined to comment specifically on the intelligence assessments.
James Acton, co-director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program, said he doesn’t believe Iran necessarily needs help — but that they do have an incentive, namely to produce the fuel faster, cheaper and more efficiently. cheap. a shorter timeline.
“They have clear incentives to ask for help, particularly on the fuel side,” Acton said.
“Three to four years ago, when US-Russia relations were bad but not catastrophic, I would have been quite skeptical if Russia would provide aid to Iran,” added Acton. “But in today’s conditions, where US-Russia relations are extremely bad and Russian-Iranian relations are improving, I think the equation looks quite different for Russia.”
The US withdrawal from the JCPOA has also likely increased Russia’s willingness to help Iran in this regard, Acton noted — and especially now that a new deal seems out of reach.
Russia played a key role throughout 2021 in the nuclear deal negotiations and even brokered some deals that allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency to move ahead with inspections at Iranian nuclear facilities, effectively keeping the negotiations on track.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, however, Russian officials seemed less involved in the deal. In June, Russia rejected a proposed IAEA resolution that criticized Iran for failing to cooperate with inspections of trace uranium found at some undeclared nuclear facilities in the country, a critical point that contributed to the derailment of negotiations.
That same month, a Russian delegation began making visits to an airfield in Iran to examine weapons-capable drones – which Russia has already purchased and used in Ukraine by the hundreds.
US officials have stressed in recent days and weeks that nuclear deal negotiations are all but dead, at least for now. The Iranian regime’s brutal and violent crackdown on protesters and support for Russian military operations in Ukraine have made it increasingly difficult for senior Biden administration officials to envision a deal with Tehran that would provide them with a financial gain in the form of sanctions relief.
US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley said on Monday that while the United States remains committed to diplomacy to curb Iran’s nuclear program, US officials will not “waste our time” on the nuclear deal.” if nothing happens. ”
Instead, the US is now focused on areas where it can be “useful”, Malley said, such as supporting protesters in Iran and looking for ways to stop Iranian arms transfers to Russia. He noted that the US still has a “preference for diplomacy” when dealing with Iran. But, he added, “we will use other tools and, as a last resort, a military option if necessary, to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.”
*Contributed to CNN’s Katie Bo Lillis
Source: CNN Brasil
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