Iran threat raises risk of escalation in conflict with Israel, expert tells CNN

The death of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas in Iran, has heightened tensions in the Middle East and increased the risk of an escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel. According to Silvio Cascione, director of Eurasia Group in Brazil, Iran’s promise of revenge after the assassination increases the likelihood of the conflict spiraling out of control.

In an interview with CNN 360° Cascione said: “We are increasingly concerned about the escalation of this conflict in the Middle East. The conclusion of our team of analysts who follow the region is that this highly provocative act has increased the risk of a regional war.”

Despite the concern, the expert stressed that a scenario of generalized war is still not the most likely. “It is not the base scenario, it is not yet the most likely scenario, because all of these actors have been acting from the beginning with a preference to maintain certain limits in this conflict,” explained Cascione.

The analyst stressed that an all-out war, which could pose existential risks to both countries, is not in the interests of either Iran or Israel. However, recent exchanges of attacks, including Iran firing hundreds of missiles at Israel in April, have heightened tensions in the region.

Cascione warned of the possible repercussions of a major conflict in the region, not only for the countries directly involved, but also for the global economy. “The region is very important for oil production, that’s obvious. So, a major conflagration in the region could of course affect fuel prices, which would have an impact on everyone in Brazil and other countries,” he said.

Furthermore, the expert highlighted the importance of the region as a transit point for the transport of goods in general around the world. An interruption in this flow could have broader economic impacts.

Given this scenario, Cascione emphasized the importance of diplomatic efforts to stabilize the situation in the region, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring of the situation by the international community.