Is Russia really preparing for an invasion of Ukraine?

Kiev and its Western allies have been claiming for weeks that Russia has mobilized troops on Ukraine’s border with the prospect of a possible invasion. Moscow denies planning such a thing.

As US and Russian diplomats meet today to discuss the issue, five questions follow to better understand the crisis.

What happens on the field?

At the end of October, videos began circulating on social media claiming to show movements of troops, tanks and other heavy Russian weapons in the direction of the Ukrainian border.

Ukrainian officials had said at the time that Russia had deployed about 115,000 troops there.

Kiev and its Western allies accuse Moscow of supplying troops and weapons to pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine after an armed conflict broke out in the zone in 2014, shortly after Russia annexed Crimea. These accusations are categorically rejected by the Kremlin.

On November 11, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that Washington had “serious concerns about Russia’s unusual military activities” in the region.

Why now;

In the past, Russia has again mobilized troops on its border with Ukraine, especially in April, when some 100,000 troops were deployed there.

Moscow has said it withdrew shortly after announcing the first summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US counterpart Joe Biden. Some analysts had argued at the time that Russia was showing strength to stay in power as the meeting approached.

As Moscow and Washington are currently discussing a new summit between Putin and Biden, experts say Russia could use the same tactics.

Others say Russia has been skeptical of Ukraine’s use of drones in Turkey, a NATO member, in late October, sending a warning.

What does Putin want?

Vladimir Putin this week accused the West of fomenting tensions with military training in the Black Sea and the delivery of modern weapons to Kiev, and warned against violating “red lines”.

Yesterday, Wednesday, he called for negotiations with the West to obtain “legal guarantees” against NATO’s eastward expansion. Russia does not want Kiev to join the organization, which it sees as a threat. In a lengthy article published in July, Putin accused Western countries of cultivating anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine.

The Russians and the Ukrainians are “one people,” he wrote, emphasizing the “spiritual, human, cultural ties” that “have existed for centuries.”

“And we will never allow our historic lands and the people who are close to us and who live there to be used against Russia,” he warned.

How do Westerners react?

Blinken has repeatedly warned Moscow against an intervention. London, NATO and the EU have issued similar warnings.

For its part, the Russian Foreign Ministry accused Kiev this week of having mobilized 125,000 troops in eastern Ukraine, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that he did not rule out “the Kiev regime launching a military adventure against Russia.”

Today, Blinken and Lavrov are scheduled to meet in Stockholm to discuss the conflict in Ukraine.

What are the chances of an invasion?

Russia has called the allegations “hysterical”, with Putin stressing this week that no invasions had been made in the spring, despite similar concerns.

Alexander Baunov, an analyst at the Carnegie Center in Moscow, told AFP that “it would be difficult to imagine an unreasonable invasion.”

In 2008, the Russian military rushed to the aid of separatists in the Georgian Republic of South Ossetia following a military operation by Georgia, then led by Mikheil Saakashvili. Within five days, Russian forces had repulsed the Georgian army.

In late November, Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) compared the current situation in Ukraine to that in Georgia in 2008 and urged Zelensky not to make the same mistake as Saakashvili. “It cost him dearly,” the SVR recalled.

SOURCE: AMPE