Italy: Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will resign on Tuesday

Giuseppe Conte hopes to get a mandate from President Sergio Mattarella to try to form a new government, the third since 2018, and implement a plan of more than 200 billion euros supposed to revive the engine of the third economy in the euro area, cooled by the pandemic which killed more than 85,000 people in the country. The political crisis was triggered by ex-Prime Minister Matteo Renzi (2014-2016), who withdrew his small party Italia Viva (IV) from the ruling coalition on January 13, after weeks of criticism of the management of the health crisis and the economic spending plans of Giuseppe Conte.

IV was part of the business majority since summer 2019 with the Democratic Party (PD, center left) and the 5-star Movement (M5S, anti-system before coming to power), supported in Parliament by small formations. In order to stay in power and avoid resignation, Giuseppe Conte had to appear before Parliament last week for a confidence vote from both chambers. Easy in the lower house, the Senate vote was narrowly won, with only a relative majority after IV senators withdrew.

Giuseppe Conte had no other choice

Giuseppe Conte had since been leading tense negotiations behind the scenes in the hope of securing the rallying of independent or dissident parliamentarians who would have eventually allowed him to remain in charge by reshaping his team. Without success. With his back to the wall, Giuseppe Conte had no choice but to put his mandate back on the line, hoping nevertheless to retain the president’s confidence.

Especially since his Minister of Justice must present this week to the Senate a reform almost guaranteed to be rebutted, a setback that would have put his government in the minority and would have forced him to resign anyway. “Conte’s calculation is that by taking the lead, and therefore avoiding a humiliating defeat in the Senate, he will increase his chances of obtaining a mandate from Mattarella to form a new government”, analyzed Tuesday evening in a note Wolfango Piccoli, of the Teneo research firm.

“It is still too early to say if he will succeed”

PD General Secretary Nicola Zingaretti said on Monday night, following Giuseppe Conte’s announcement, that his troops are supporting the formation of a new government with the outgoing Prime Minister. “With Conte for a new clearly pro-European government backed by a broad parliamentary base, which guarantees credibility and stability to face Italy’s great challenges,” he wrote on his Twitter account. “We stand by Conte,” M5S leaders in both chambers, Davide Crippa and Ettore Licheri, wrote in a joint statement.

If he gets a mandate from the presidency to try to reconstitute a government, Giuseppe Conte should seek to expand his majority. “It is still too early to say whether he will succeed,” warned Wolfgango Piccoli, noting that if he failed, the M5S and PD could “drop Conte and look for another candidate.” The former lawyer, who has never run for office, could paradoxically benefit from the polls. No center-left party has any interest in rushing early parliamentary elections, which opinion polls suggest would allow the right-wing Silvio Berlusconi (Forza Italia), associated with the far right (Lega and Fratelli d’Italia), to win.