This Friday (8th), Itaú raised its forecast for the growth of the Brazilian economy in 2022 from 1.6% to 2%.
To justify the review, the institution mentions stronger data in the labor market and the expansion of the payment of social benefits for the second semester, foreseen in the PEC of Benefits that is being processed in Congress.
“(The PEC measures) should positively impact the economy in the period”, he said. For 2023, the bank maintained its expectation of a rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 0.2%.
Itaú also revised its unemployment rate projection to 11% to 10.5% this year and from 12.3% to 11.2% in 2023.
Despite the improvement, the bank points out that fiscal sustainability is once again becoming a relevant challenge, given the possible trajectory of public spending in the near future.
“The next government will have to decide on the continuity of the aid that will be implemented in the second half of this year, in addition to the fiscal framework that will be valid ahead, in an emerging economy with high public debt and high interest rates”, it says in a note.
It is worth remembering that the increase in benefits provided for in the PEC is valid only until the end of this year, but there is fear in the market that the next government will keep spending above the constitutional ceiling.
Itaú also raised the forecast for the primary deficit from zero to 0.4% of GDP in 2022. For 2023, it went from -0.1% to 1.5%. The forecast for gross debt was 79% and 84% of GDP this year and next, respectively.
*In update
Source: CNN Brasil
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