Japan’s conservative coalition government is expected to increase its majority in the upper house of parliament following Sunday’s election, two days after the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe.
Abe, Japan’s longest-serving modern leader, was shot dead on Friday during a campaign speech in the western city of Nara, in a killing that stunned a country where political violence and gun crime are rampant. rare.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), of which Abe remained an influential lawmaker, and his partner Komeito party were on course to win 69 to 83 of the 125 contested seats in the upper house – a significant increase over the 69 seats currently, according to an exit poll by public broadcaster NHK.
Elections to the upper house are typically a referendum on the incumbent government. The change of government was not at stake, as that is determined by the lower house.
But the strong showing could help Kishida consolidate his rule as he looks to guide Japan’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, stem rising consumer prices and bolster defense at a time of tension with its powerful neighbor China.
The final results should come out this Monday (11).
“It is significant that we were able to convene this election at a time when violence was shaking the foundations of the election,” said Kishida, an Abe protege, after the exit poll.
“Right now, as we face issues like the coronavirus, Ukraine and inflation, solidarity within the government and coalition parties is vital,” he added.
The party held a moment of silence for Abe at its Tokyo headquarters as members awaited the results.
The LDP is projected to win over 69 seats, according to the exit poll, which would give it a majority even without Komeito.
His earnings could allow Kishida to revise Japan’s pacifist Constitution, a dream Abe never achieved.
Parties open to revision of the Constitution were designed to retain their two-thirds majority in the upper house.
Kishida may tread cautiously on the constitutional change, but the apparent victory seemed destined to pave the way for more defense spending, a key electoral promise of the LDP, said Robert Ward of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Kishida “now has the green light for that,” Ward said.
Asked about the constitutional review on Sunday night, Kishida said he would focus on drafting a bill to be discussed in parliament.
People close to Kishida said his team also wants to phase out “Abenomics,” Japan’s economic policy of government spending and monetary stimulus named after the former prime minister who started the experiment nearly a decade ago.
Kishida may now have the political capital to change course, analysts said, and he will also likely have three years to pass legislation before another election needs to be held.
“Kishida may have more leeway in pursuing policies based on his ideas, although lawmakers close to Abe may come together and call more vocally for support of Abenomics,” said Koya Miyamae, senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.
Abe effect
Shigenobu Tamura, a political analyst and former LDP official, said Abe’s assassination may have bolstered the ruling party’s support in “hotly contested districts”.
Other analysts said the exit poll was broadly in line with pre-election polls. Turnout is expected to rise to 51.58% from 48.8% in the last upper house election three years ago, Kyodo news agency estimated.
Abe was fighting for LDP candidate Kei Sato in Nara when he was shot at point-blank range by a man with a homemade gun.
The former prime minister “was shot in an act of terrorism in the middle of our election campaign,” Sato said after exit polls projected he would win his seat. “We continue our campaign in the belief that we must not give in to terrorism or fear it – we must overcome it.”
Nara police said on Sunday they had seized a motorcycle and a vehicle belonging to the murder suspect, 41-year-old Tetsuya Yamagami, who was arrested at the scene.
Source: CNN Brasil
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