Javier Milei, the “chainsaw” candidate challenges Argentina’s left and right

Carried by a wave of shouting, chainsaw-wielding supporters in the open air, the man of the moment approached center stage.

He looked around and angrily shouted “Chainsaw! Chainsaw!” — a war cry quickly picked up by his supporters calling for carnage.

All around him, screams, chants and horns sounded loudly.

This wasn’t a WWE wrestling show, but the 2023 presidential race in Argentina, where political outsider Javier Milei is the leading candidate.

His repeated chainsaw-wielding appearances at campaign stops—as he did at the rally described above in the coastal city of Mar del Plata on September 12—symbolize promises to drastically cut government spending, eliminate public subsidies, and “break with the status quo.” quo”.

Milei, an economist and former political commentator, surprised the Argentine political scene in August when he won the largest share of the coalition’s primary votes that most observers consider indicative of the next presidential contest, scheduled for October 22.

Argentine politics has been largely dominated by the same groups for the past 20 years, and Milei represents a new outside force that is aggressively targeting traditional powerbrokers on both sides of the aisle.

It’s a familiar story that draws comparisons to the rise of other far-right stars such as former US President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.

Like Bolsonaro, Milei gained fame at a time of great economic crisis in his country — Argentina’s annual inflation reached 124% in August, its highest level in more than 32 years, and food prices, in particular, rose 15%. % compared to the previous month, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Census INDEC.

And like Trump, Milei managed to channel a feeling of anger against a political class considered distant and ineffective.

To the sound of the Trumpian slogan, ‘Drain the Swamp’, Milei’s supporters shout “¡¡Qué se vayan todos!!”, which means “Let everyone leave!” — an expression of fury against politicians on both sides of the spectrum.

Argentina’s left is currently in government, following the right-wing government from 2015 to 2019.

Milei is presenting herself as the renewal candidate — an offer that clearly resonated with people in the primary vote. The question now is whether her strategy will hold up during the national vote next month.

“I will vote for Milei because I think he will change things,” says Eduardo Murchio, a taxi driver in the Argentine capital, Buenos Aires. “I’m tired of the same faces, the same governors […]I’m 40 years old and it’s always the same story,” he told Reuters.

What a Milei presidency would be like

Milei, who is unmarried and lives with five English mastiffs – one of them named after neoliberal economist Milton Friedman – describes himself as a libertarian and “anarcho-capitalist”. He promised to reduce public subsidies and get rid of culture ministries; Education; environment; and women, gender and diversity; among several others.

Perhaps Milei’s most significant proposal is to dollarize Argentina, a radical plan that he claims is the definitive solution to the country’s chronic inflation problems. Replacing the peso with the US dollar and giving up sovereign monetary policy would hardly be a new approach in Latin America, where Ecuador, El Salvador and Panama use the US dollar – but it has not been tested in a country as large as Argentina.

But Milei’s skill as a macroeconomic strategist was also untested; He worked as a financial analyst in the private sector before entering politics.

“Opening the economy without any protective barrier has never happened in Argentina,” said Javier Marcus, professor of finance at the National University of Rosario, in Buenos Aires. While other countries have effectively stabilized prices thanks to dollarization, giving up monetary policy would effectively mean giving up Argentina’s ability to influence its own country’s finances.

Marcus points out that dollarization would further expose Argentina to foreign economic problems – a significant break with other populist leaders. “This is a big difference because both Trump and Bolsonaro always talk about putting their country first and supporting local production,” he says. “But if you look at Milei, you will see that he always talks about opening Argentina to the world.”

Much less palatable to many, however, is Milei’s penchant for extreme personal attacks, often seen as sexist. Once, in 2018, responding to a question about economic strategies from local journalist Teresa Fria, Milei shouted: “It’s not that I’m a totalitarian. I’m just saying that you’re stupid and talk about things you don’t know. You just talked like an ass and what I’m doing now is pulling you out of your ass!

His policies have put him on a collision course with Argentina’s powerful female electorate. During the campaign, Milei said she would call a referendum to abolish the country’s 2020 constitutional reform that legalized abortion, although constitutional experts interviewed by CNN raised doubts about the legality of such a measure.

He has also taken political risks with his passion for targeting Pope Francis, even referring to the Pope as “an envoy of Satan” in November 2020 – although Milei has in recent months distanced himself from these views. Argentina remains a deeply Catholic country, with more than 60% of the population identifying as Roman Catholic, according to the CIA factbook.

Although Milei did not personally attack Pope Francis during the campaign, a spokesperson told CNN that for Milei, “Pope Francis represents sectors that impede progress in society.”

Facing Patricia Bullrich and Sergio Massa

But despite her headline-grabbing rhetoric and shocking primary success, Milei’s run for president is far from a done deal. Argentine presidents are elected in a two-round system that favors coalition building and is designed to keep extremism on the sidelines.

Recent polls show that the vote was split three ways, with Milei slightly ahead of the traditional center-right aspirant Patricia Bullrich and the leftist Sergio Massa, the current Economy Minister.

Bullrich, a former security minister, told CNN Español that she would let economists run the Finance Ministry and offer a steady, calm hand at the wheel compared to Milei’s outbursts.

Massa, seen as Milei’s main rival, has tried to position himself as a more pragmatic voice on the left compared to the current government coalition. He has worked to distance himself politically from Argentina’s prominent vice president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, without alienating her power base.

Neither Massa nor Bullrich are expected to negotiate with Milei at this point in the campaign, and both traditional coalitions were quick to criticize his lack of government experience and the risks of undoing Argentina’s existing economic structures.

Still, experts say there is a clear appetite for change this year — and that the winning candidate must find a way to capitalize on it. “This election is all about change, even Sergio Massa represents a change in the continuity of the government,” said Claudio Jacquelin, deputy editor of the important Argentine newspaper La Nación, in an interview with CNN Español on Wednesday (27).

On Sunday, the candidates will hold a first debate with mandatory participation. A first round of voting will take place three weeks later. If no candidate receives 45% of the vote (or more than 40% with a difference of more than 10% with the next candidate in total votes), the two best-placed candidates will proceed to a runoff in November.

The more competitive second round after weeks of confrontation and comparison will be the biggest test for Milei. While her surprising rise has played in her favor so far, the sometimes extreme novelty of her ideas could scare voters as the race continues, Facundo Nejamkis, director of the Buenos Aires-based polling firm Opina, told CNN.

“(Milei’s) challenge — with a view to the second round — is to avoid fear or uncertainty among the vast majority (of voters), who could end up voting for a candidate they never imagined, just to prevent Milei from coming to power” , he said.