- The US Jolts data will be closely followed before publication of the March Employment Report on Friday.
- Employment offers are expected to decrease around 7.63 million in February.
- The state of the labor market is a key factor for Fed officials in establishing policy.
The Employment and Work Rotation Survey (Jolts) will be published on Tuesday by the United States Labor Statistics Office (BLS). The publication will provide data on the change in the number of job offers in February, together with the number of layoffs and resignations.
Jolts data are analyzed by market participants and those responsible for Federal Reserve Policies (FED) because they can provide valuable information about the dynamics of supply and demand in the labor market, a key factor that impacts wages and inflation. Employment offers have been constantly decreasing since they exceeded 12 million in March 2022, indicating constant cooling in labor market conditions. In September 2024, the number of jobs decreased to 7.44 million, marking the lowest reading since January 2021, before increasing to 7.8 million and 8.09 million in October and November, respectively. At the end of 2024, the data stood at 7.5 million before bouncing 7.74 million in January.
What to expect in the next Jolts report?
Markets expect job offers to decrease to 7.63 million on the last business day of February. After the March policy meeting, the Federal Reserve (FED) said that the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level and labor market conditions remain solid. The review of economic projections (SEP) showed that those responsible for the FED project an unemployment rate of 4.4% at the end of 2025, compared to 4.3% in the SEP of December. At the press conference after the meeting, the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, repeated that the labor market seemed to be in general balance.
It is important to note that, although Jolts data refer to at the end of February, the Official Employment Report, which will be published on Friday, measures March data. In addition, market participants could refrain from taking large positions based on these data before the US president Donald Trump announce the details of the new tariff regime on Wednesday.
In February, non -agricultural payroll (NFP) increased by 151,000, being below the market expectation of an increase of 160,000. The CME Fedwatch tool currently shows that markets are valuing a probability of less than 20% of a 25 basic points (BPS) rates cut in May. Although it is unlikely that employment offers data influence FED’s rate perspective, a significant negative surprise, with a reading at or below 7 million, it could weigh on the US dollar (USD) with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, market positioning suggests that the USD does not have much upward space, even if the data is better than expected.
“The hiring remained at 5.4 million, and the total separations changed little by 5.3 million,” said the BLS in its January Jolts report. “Within the separations, the resignations (3.3 million) and the dismissals and cessations (1.6 million) changed little.”
Economic indicator
Jolts work and labor rotation offers survey
The job and labor offers survey is made by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job offers. Collect data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices of each month.
Read more.
Next publication:
ABR 01, 2025
Frequency:
Monthly
Dear:
7.63m
Previous:
7.74m
Fountain:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
When will the Jolts report be published and how could it affect the EUR/USD?
Employment offers will be published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Eren Sengezer, leading analyst of the European session at FXSTERET, shares its technical perspective for the EUR/USD:
“The EUR/USD remains in a bullish posture but lacks impulse, with the indicator of the Relative Force Index (RSI) in the daily graph 38.2% of the bassist trend of October-volume). “
“Looking north, the first level of resistance could be found in 1,0900 (static level) before 1.1000 (fibonacci setback of 78.6%) and 1,1100 (static level).”
US dollar FAQS
The US dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the “de facto” currency of a significant number of other countries where it is in circulation along with local tickets. According to data from 2022, it is the most negotiated currency in the world, with more than 88% of all global currency change operations, which is equivalent to an average of 6.6 billion dollars in daily transactions. After World War II, the USD took over the pound sterling as a world reserve currency.
The most important individual factor that influences the value of the US dollar is monetary policy, which is determined by the Federal Reserve (FED). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and promote full employment. Its main tool to achieve these two objectives is to adjust interest rates. When prices rise too quickly and inflation exceeds the 2% objective set by the Fed, it rises the types, which favors the price of the dollar. When inflation falls below 2% or the unemployment rate is too high, the Fed can lower interest rates, which weighs on the dollar.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more dollars and promulgate quantitative flexibility (QE). The QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is an unconventional policy measure that is used when the credit has been exhausted because banks do not lend each other (for fear of the default of the counterparts). It is the last resort when it is unlikely that a simple decrease in interest rates will achieve the necessary result. It was the weapon chosen by the Fed to combat the contraction of the credit that occurred during the great financial crisis of 2008. It is that the Fed prints more dollars and uses them to buy bonds of the US government, mainly of financial institutions. Which usually leads to a weakening of the US dollar.
The quantitative hardening (QT) is the reverse process for which the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvote the capital of the wallet values ​​that overcome in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US dollar.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
