Grayscale has been trying to convert its GBTC private fund into a Bitcoin spot ETF for a long time. However, JPMorgan bank analysts believe that if this happens, traders will withdraw $2.7 billion.

The fact is that the shares of the GBTC fund were previously traded at a discount – that is, it was much cheaper to buy them than the same amount of bitcoins. However, when converted to a spot ETF, the share price must be equal to the price of the first cryptocurrency. Therefore, traders bought shares of the fund in order to make a significant profit when converted into ETFs. JPMorgan analysts expect that many traders will decide to take profits with such a conversion and the cost of the shares sold will be at least $2.7 billion. And this may put pressure on the price of the first cryptocurrency.

“Once the SEC approves spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, we expect more intense competition, and the average commission in such funds will approach the commission in gold ETFs, that is, about 50 basis points,” the bank representatives expect.

At the same time, JPMorgan analysts predict that part of the $2.7 billion withdrawn will be invested in other Bitcoin instruments, for example, in spot ETFs of other companies. Analysts expect that the ratio of GBTC’s capitalization to funds of other companies will change from $23 billion to $5 billion to $20 billion to $8 billion. At the same time, some funds will leave the cryptocurrency space for good.

Meanwhile, the American regulator and Grayscale continue to discuss the terms of converting the GBTC fund into a spot ETF.