There are at least four million Italians who, to date, have already officially contracted Covid. It is an underestimate, because a high percentage of those affected have been asymptomatic or weakly symptomatic. Also the estimate of the notification rate, i.e. the number of immunized people, has changed over time. If at the beginning of the pandemic, between March and April 2020, there was only one case out of ten, in the following phase it reached 24%, up to 36% in the third wave.
So, according to the Kessler Foundation, official data provider to the Higher Institute of Health during the fifteen months of the pandemic, the number of Italians already infected, and therefore with antibodies, is between eleven and 16 million: about 28% of the population.
To these people we must add the immune from vaccine: to date have been administered more than 28 million doses (19 million have received at least the first), especially among the over 80 and between 70-80 years old. The variables that affect protection are many: from the different efficacy between one vaccine and another, to the different levels of safety between those who received only the first dose and those who also received the second. But it is estimated that 15 million Italians (25% of the population) are immunized thanks to the vaccine. This share, added to the total number of citizens affected by the virus, leads to a percentage of Italians immune to Covid included between 43 and 53% of the population: one in two. And, if the vaccination campaign continues at this rate, with over 500,000 doses per day, in a few days the total could rise by a further 10%.
The goal of vaccinations is to reach 75% of Italians: only then can the limitations remain just a bad memory, keeping valid only the rules of the mask, spacing and hand sanitation.
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