Kyiv: US military analysts see an attack in the next 24 to 96 hours

Russian forces are preparing to attack Kyiv for the next 24 hours, according to an analysis by the Institute for War Studies.

The U.S. military think tank IWS, which is closely monitoring developments, believes that “Russian forces are concentrated in the eastern, northwestern and western suburbs of Kiev for an attack on the capital in the next 24-96 hours.”

Russian forces, plagued by logistical problems, have made little progress recently, but the ISW notes that they “report supplies and reinforcements as well as carry out attacks to weaken defenses and intimidate defenders before such an attack.”

This could herald the beginning of a critical moment in the war, analysts write in their latest daily review.

It is too early to gauge the potential effectiveness of any Russian attempt to complete the siege of Kiev or occupy the city at this time. If the Russian troops were able to resupply, reorganize and plan deliberate and coordinated simultaneous operations along the various axes of advance around and to the capital, they may be more successful in this operation than in previous ones, writes the ISW.

The situation in the rest of the country

According to the same analysis, Russian troops in southern Ukraine continue to divide their efforts between attacks west to Mykolayev and Odessa, attacks north to Zaporizhia and attacks east, Mariupol and Donbas. Failure to focus on any forward line has likely hampered Russian operations and will likely continue to do so.

Russian troops on the outskirts of Kherson appear to be making their way around Mykolayiv, most likely looking for a route on the Southern Bug River that would allow them to bypass Mykolayiv itself and continue their advance into Odessa. Those heading to Zaporizhia do not currently have the fighting power that is likely to be needed to encircle or occupy this large city. They could, however, set conditions for successful operations against Zaporizhia as soon as reinforcements arrived after the fall of Mariupol and the opening of a wide land route west of Donbass.

Key points according to IWS:

– Russian forces are consolidating and preparing for further operations along the western and eastern suburbs of Kiev, particularly in the Irpin region in the west and the Brovary region in the east.

– Ukrainian forces are challenging the extensive Russian lines arriving from Sumy, which Russian forces have not yet conquered, in the eastern suburbs of Kiev.

– Russian troops are likely to attempt to bypass Mykolayiv and cross the city’s Southern Bug River to allow an advance into Odessa combined with an impending amphibious operation against the city.

– Russian forces move north from the Crimea to the city of Zaporizhya.

Source: TheToc