The size of the aircraft fleet in the Latin America could double in the next two decades. The forecast is made by companies in the aerospace sector and studies in the area.
According to Boeing, one of the global market leaders, the region along with the Caribbean will need 2,240 aircraft by 2041 – a growth of more than 85%. According to the company, Brazil should be responsible for 30% of this demand which will make it the country with the largest share of the commercial aviation fleet.
The forecast is part of Boeing’s “2022 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO)” document, which puts the region at the forefront of the industry’s global air traffic recovery.
“Latin America has seen a strong recovery in air travel, particularly in domestic markets, with airlines in the region successfully using single-aisle fleets for short-haul flights and expanding their global networks,” said David Franson, Regional Forecast Director Boeing’s market share. “Brazil is the largest market in the region and is well positioned for a healthy recovery beyond short-term market disruptions. Currently, of the flights originating in Latin America, 28% are from Brazil.”
These new deliveries, in addition to doubling the current fleet, will be used on popular tourism routes between North America, Mexico and the Caribbean, also expanding intra-regional networks.
The company forecasts that passenger traffic in the region will grow 4.4% per year. Carriers in the region will need 118,000 new aviation employees, including 35,000 pilots, 35,000 technicians and 48,000 cabin crew members over the next two decades, according to Boeing forecasts (2022 Pilot and Technician Outlook).
The Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF) released very similar numbers, showing that Latin America is expected to increase from 1,450 aircraft to 2,850.
From 2002 to 2019, passenger traffic in Latin America nearly tripled. The company predicts it will rise from 0.44 annual trips per capita to 0.86 annual trips per capita by 2041. Per capita travel rates in Argentina, Brazil and Chile will be even higher.
Also according to Airbus, although the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in a four-year drop in passenger traffic, the region is expected to fully recover between 2023 and 2025.
As for the growth of employees and services, the numbers are also very close. According to GMF, to pilot this growing fleet, it is expected that 38,000 new pilots and 38,000 technicians will need to be trained over the next 20 years in Latin America representing revenue from service US＄13 billion by 2041 .
Source: CNN Brasil
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