Published this Monday (7) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics, of Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV/Ibre), the Antecedent Employment Indicator (IAEmp) dropped 5.3 points in January and closed the first month of 2022 at 74.8 points.
It is the lowest level since August 2020, when it reached 74.8 points.
This was the fifth consecutive nominal decline for the indicator, although the study’s organizers consider it to be only the fourth. This is because between September and October, the negative variation of 0.1 point was classified as stability.
The indicator ranges from 0 to 200 and has its neutral point at 100. Variations from this number indicate positive or negative trends, depending on the direction.
This time, all eight components of the IAEmp contributed to the fall in the index.
The main highlight was the Current Business Situation component, which dropped 1.6 points, followed by the Business Trend item, for the next six months, which dropped one point, in addition to Expected Employment, on hiring for the next three months, with negative variation of 0.9 point.
Economist at FGV Ibre, Rodolpho Tobler highlights that, although the influence of macroeconomic factors, such as low consumer confidence, high inflation, interest rate hikes and low-wage re-employment, is reflected in the numbers as a result of the slowdown in the economy, the advance of the Ômicron variant of the new coronavirus also leaves its mark.
“It is the worsening of a slowdown that had already occurred since the fourth quarter of last year. The service sector was the least impacted, but the spread of Ômicron affects it a lot with the resumption of restrictive measures, the postponement of Carnival and the increase in consumers’ fear of moving freely through the cities, due to this more transmissible variant”, he says. .
In addition to the impact on the volume produced and demand, the economist also highlights the effects of the pandemic in relation to productivity.
“In January, industries reported many sick leave for Covid-19 treatment,” concludes Tobler.
Source: CNN Brasil
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