The Iranian-backed Hezbollah has been hit hard in Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, with preliminary results showing losses for some of its oldest allies and the Saudi-affiliated Lebanese Forces party claiming significant gains.
With the vote count continuing, the final results have not yet been announced in the first elections in the midst of a severe economic crisis in Lebanon and after the huge explosion in the port of Beirut in 2020.
The heavily armed Shiite Muslim group Hezbollah and its allies secured 71 of the 128 parliamentary seats in Lebanon’s last election in 2018, but whether it will be able to retain a majority will depend on results that have not yet been finalized – including seats for Sunni Muslims.
The announced results show a more fragmented parliament, polarized between Hezbollah allies and rivals, an outcome that analysts say could lead to a stalemate as factions work out a power-sharing deal for top government officials.
“If the agreements of the past are dead, what kind of policies will we have in addition to more sectarian tensions and a repeat of the conflicts we have seen?” asked Mohannad Heitz Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
While the results of the 2018 elections had brought Lebanon closer to the trajectory of Shiite Iran, these results could open the door for Sunni Saudi Arabia to exert more influence on a country that has long been an arena of its rivalry with Tehran, he added.
In one of the most dramatic upheavals, Hezbollah ally Druze politician Talal Arslan, a descendant of one of Lebanon’s oldest political dynasties, was first elected in 1992 and lost his seat to Mark Dow, a newcomer to politics. campaigned with a reform agenda, according to the latter’s campaign director and a Hezbollah official.
Preliminary results also show gains for at least five other independent candidates who campaigned in support of reforms and promised to hold accountable politicians accused of leading Lebanon into the worst crisis since the 1975-90 civil war.
The gains reported by the Lebanese Forces (LF), which strongly opposes Hezbollah, mean that this party could surpass the Hezbollah-affiliated Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), as the largest Christian party in Parliament.
The LF has won at least 20 seats out of 15 in 2018, said the head of the party’s press office, Antoinette Zaza.
The FPM has secured up to 16 seats, up from 18 in 2018, Sagent Younes, head of his electoral body, told Reuters.
The FPM is the largest Christian party in Parliament since its founder, President Michel Aoun, returned from exile in France in 2005. Aoun and LF leader Samir Zaza were rivals in the civil war.
The LF, established as a militia during Lebanon’s 15-year civil war, has repeatedly called on Hezbollah to leave its arsenal.
“Hezbollah’s Christian allies have lost the right to represent the majority of Christians,” said Hedge Ali, calling it a “major blow” to the group’s claim that it has interfaith support for its strong arsenal.
Hezbollah and its ally, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s Amal Movement, maintain their dominance over Shiite representation by winning all seats corresponding to their religious community, according to preliminary figures from both parties.
It remains to be seen whether Hezbollah allies will take the vacancies left after the departure of prominent Sunni politician Saad al-Hariri, particularly in Beirut and southern Lebanon.
Parliament will have to elect a president – a post Berry has held since 1992 – before appointing a prime minister to form a government. Later this year, lawmakers are expected to elect a new president to succeed Aoun, whose term expires on October 31st.
Any delay in forming a government – a process that could take months – could mean further delays in reforms needed to tackle the economic crisis and unlock support from the International Monetary Fund and donor countries.
An opposition candidate also claimed a significant victory in a Hezbollah-dominated area of ​​southern Lebanon.
Elias Jaradi, an ophthalmologist, has won a seat for Orthodox Christians previously held by Assad Hardan of the Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party, a close ally of Hezbollah and a member of parliament since 1992, two officials said.
“It’s a new beginning for the south and for Lebanon as a whole,” Jaradi told Reuters.
Nadim Houri, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, said the results of 14 or 15 seats would determine the majority.
“There will be two blocs against each other – on the one hand Hezbollah and its allies and on the other the Lebanese Forces and their allies and in the middle these new voices that will enter Parliament,” he said.
Source: AMPE
Source: Capital
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