The level of reservoirs in the Southeast/Midwest region, where the main hydroelectric plants will have to practically double by the end of the wet season, in April 2022, for the country to return to some relief in energy terms, and that is possible, the director general of the U.S, Luiz Carlos Ciocchi.
According to the head of the National Electric System Operator, after the worst wet period in more than 90 years in the area of hydroelectric power plants, the rains started on schedule, unlike in 2020.
For November, for example, the ONS forecasts above-average rainfall in the Southeast/Midwest, in addition to rainfall at 89% of the historical average in the Northeast, another important region for hydroelectric power plants, said the agency on Friday (12).
Currently, the level of dams in the Southeast/Midwest regions is around 18.5%. The ideal, according to Ciocchi, is that the rains that started now could raise the level to close to 35%.
“With the rain that has already arrived, soil unit, even if we project the rains for 2020/2021, which were the worst in history, we would reach (in April) 35%, bursting 40% (in the Southeast/Center -West)”, he pointed out.
“This would be a level that we are going through the year of 2022 like this one here. With caution, care and achieve”, he said, noting that this level would avoid any risk of energy rationing.
Although the level of the dams will have to double by April, Ciocchi estimates this is feasible.
“If we reach 35%, it will be good… and it is possible… from a technical point of view, we will enter 2021/2022 with much more confidence than 2020/2021”, he reinforced.
As rains in January they will be important to improve the situation of the reservoirs, he pointed out, noting that for now it is difficult to make accurate forecasts for the first month of the year.
costs
To cover the costs of activation of more thermals to guarantee the energy supply, the government created the water scarcity flag, which is expected to remain in effect until April of next year.
According to Ciocchi, there is no prospect of abandoning the new flag.
Ciocchi signaled, however, that if the rains come in at or above expectations, the more expensive thermals will be shut down, easing cost pressure on energy.
The tariff flag account has been in deficit, despite the tariff increase, and the sector has been negotiating with the government a package for the electricity sector that would include financing from banks that could reach up to R$ 15 billion, as previously published by Reuters.
Recovery
The director-general of the ONS stated that after the biggest water crisis in more than 90 years, a project of two to three years will be needed to recover the level of the country’s dams.
“It is not possible to replenish reservoirs with a single rainy season. This is a program to be maintained and to work on it for two, three years. There’s a huge imponderable because you don’t know how much water comes in”, said Ciocchi.
This recovery of the reservoirs, he said, will not be done at any price or cost. Ciocchi stated that one cannot think of “filling reservoirs with thermal plants that cost 2,400 reais per megawatt hour”.
voluntary reduction
The National Electric System Operator this week suspended the receiving offers in the voluntary reduction program electricity consumption, which involved large energy consumers and other agents, as one of the ways the government could deal with the water crisis.
This occurred after the improvement of hydropower conditions and with the effectiveness of these emergency actions, said the director.
The measure, however, does not exclude the possibility of resuming actions in 2022, if the need for additional resources to meet the demand for electricity in the country is identified.
The suspension was the target of criticism, but the ONS director said they are unfounded.
According to Ciocchi, at this moment, there is no need for cutting-edge energy, which is the focus of the voluntary demand reduction program.
“This program was for high end, for those 15 or 30 minutes you need 500 MW more to not have a problem. It’s been successful and used, but when you don’t have to, it’s gone,” he said.
He explained that you cannot compare the price of a thermal with demand response. “To compare this is to compare oranges with watermelon. It is one thing to pay dearly for energy for the whole month, another thing is power on a day from 17:00 to 17:30, for example. There is no such thing as using a more expensive resource and leaving aside a cheaper one”.
Reference: CNN Brasil
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