Liberation Day – But at what price? – Commerzbank

The uncertainty that Trump’s policy brings, through his many turns, his erratic statements and his cancellation of long -standing agreements and treaties. It seems that nothing can be reliable. The fact that this uncertainty is diminishing business feeling and, therefore, the growth prospects, seems to be sufficiently present in the market and in the minds of the market participants, says Commerzbank’s currency analyst, Antje Praefcke.

Consumers can press growth in the US

“For me, there is the question of whether the US market and administration are already taking into account sufficiently the fact that the current uncertainty caused by the US trade policy could have a massive impact on consumer behavior. If consumers stop spending for fear of unemployment and price increase, they avoid important purchases or even squeeze the belt and deprive themselves, the great pillar of the growth of the growth of The US will stagger.

“If consumers become less active in the housing market due to high interest rates or even increasing, or even experience payment difficulties, the pillar will fall apart even more. If, in addition, the stock market will fall, drying another source of income, even the last consumer would be affected. And once the confidence in the future has been lost, it usually takes a long time to return – and with it, and with it, and with it, and with it, and with it USA. That would be a high price to pay. “

“Trump and his followers can call a possible transient economic recession. I am not so sure that a recession during a commercial warfare is more than transitory and that the motivating slogans of the president of the US are enough to keep American consumers online – especially once they have lost their jobs and the perspectives of finding a new one look bleak.”