Loan portfolio should grow 0.7% in October, says Febraban

The credit portfolio of the National Financial System (SFN) should grow 0.7% in October compared to September, according to the Special Credit Survey of the Brazilian Federation of Banks (Febraban).

Compared to October last year, the increase should be 15.7%, slowing down compared to the annual growth of the previous month, of 16.8%.

According to the entity, public credit programs for companies, such as the National Support Program for Micro and Small Businesses (Pronampe) and FGI-Peac, should boost the origination of targeted credit, helping to expand the portfolio as a all.

In free resources, growth should be lower in the month, 0.2%.

As a reflection of this movement, the earmarked portfolio tends to accelerate the annual increase, going from 13.5% to 14%, against the movement of the total balance. In the month, the expansion of this portfolio should be 1.5%, according to the survey.

“The survey shows that the increase in October should be led by credit to companies, with an advance of 2.2%, which continues to show a robust volume of operations in credit programs for micro, small and medium-sized companies, such as Pronampe and the Peac-FGI”, says Rubens Sardenberg, Director of Economics, Prudential Regulation and Risks at Febraban.

Even so, the Corporate loan portfolio should retreat 0.3% in the month, thanks to the 1.6% drop in the balance of operations with free resources. The low expectation is due to the negative seasonality of lines aimed at controlling cash flow, typical of the beginning of the semester.

In credit to individuals, the expectation is for an increase of 1.4% in the month, driven by the growth of the free resources portfolio (+1.6%), in view of the improvement in the job market and also the effect of the payroll loans from Brazil Aid. In targeted, the expectation is a high of 1.1%, before the new round of the Crop Plan.

Concessions

In concessions, the expectation of the banks is a drop of 6.3% in October compared to September. Adjusted for working days, the low should be 1.6%. In relation to October last year, concessions should be 23% higher, and according to Febraban, they will continue at a historically high level, of around R$ 500 billion per month.

The annual result should show deceleration in relation to September, the month in which the increase was 23.6%.

Banks have reduced credit concessions in certain lines, given the increase in the Selic rate and the rise in defaults.

In the monthly comparison, the biggest drop (-16.5%) should come from directed lines, reflecting the accommodation of public programs after the concession peaks of each one of them. In free resources, the expectation is for a drop of 4.7% in concessions.

With regard to the public, concessions for individuals should rise 0.4%, and those for legal entities, fall 14.2%.

The Febraban Survey is released every month as a preview of the Central Bank Credit Note.

Data from the main banks in the country, which represent from 37% to 88% of the total SFN credit balance, depending on the line, and macroeconomic variables that impact the credit market are considered.