Lukashenka’s regime threatened to shoot down and hijack a Ryanair passenger plane: what’s next

On May 23, a Ryanair plane on its way from Athens to Vilnius was forced to land in Minsk due to information about “mining” received from Belarusian air traffic controllers. On board was the former editor-in-chief of the largest opposition Telegram channel Nexta Roman Protasevich. He was detained by security officials, an international scandal erupted. In the West, the incident is called an act of terrorism and they threaten to introduce new sanctions against Belarus, in particular, by closing the sky to it. How and why Lukashenka kidnapped more than 170 people and what’s next

WHAT HAPPENED. On May 23, a Ryanair plane, flying from Athens to Vilnius, urgently landed in the capital of Belarus. There were 171 passengers on board. The plane was already on the border with Lithuania, but then turned around and landed in the direction of Minsk.

It turned out that the crew had received a message from Belarusian dispatchers about a “bomb on board” (Lukashenka’s propagandists say that the crew allegedly requested a landing themselves). The military lifted a MiG-29 fighter into the sky, which was accompanied by the liner. According to one of the opposition leaders Pavel Latushko, the MiG-29 also threatened to shoot down the plane through dispatchers if it did not make an emergency landing.

Protasevich was on board. When the plane landed, the passengers were removed, and the sappers searched the liner. The bomb was not found. A repeated inspection of passengers was also carried out, during which Protasevich and his girlfriend were detained by the security forces (even before the flight, the oppositionist noticed that he was being watched). The plane stayed at the airport for several more hours, and then the crew was allowed to fly to Vilnius.

According to Latushko, in addition to the oppositionist and his girlfriend, four people “did not fly” to Vilnius, according to preliminary data, citizens of the Russian Federation. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary suggested that KGB agents got off the plane.

“It could have been employees of the Russian special services who followed Protasevich, or Russian consultants who worked with opponents of Lukashenka,” expert of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future Igor Tyshkevich, clarifying that Russia was at least aware of what was happening and could help in spying on the Belarusian oppositionist.

Opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya called Protasevich’s arrest an operation by the special services of dictator Lukashenka. She stated that she had contacted the Ryanair office and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), demanding to start an investigation into the incident and take measures up to the exclusion of Belarus from ICAO.

In Belarus, Protasevich is accused of “inciting social enmity on the basis of professional affiliation”, “organizing mass riots” and “organizing group actions that grossly violate public order.” The oppositionist himself stated that he was facing the death penalty (the KGB added him to the list of terrorists, but there is no official charge under this article yet).

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT. Lukashenka’s actions have already provoked an international scandal. European leaders called the incident an act of state terrorism and piracy, and also announced the threat to international aviation from the Belarusian regime. A number of EU countries and the United States demanded to strengthen sanctions against Belarus, hold a meeting of the ICAO Council and an investigation, and before it ends, it is proposed to suspend the membership of Belarus and ban all flights over it, to and from the country. Ukraine may also consider this option.

The ICAO has so far reacted only with concern, saying that the forced landing of the plane “may be contrary to the Chicago Convention.”

Tyshkevich believes that Lukashenka’s motivation for arresting Protasevich is connected with an attempt to intimidate the opposition and clean up the Belarusian information field (the largest independent media outlet Tut.by was recently closed there). Also, intelligence agencies may try to obtain information about the sources of funding for Nexta in 2020, which “may be interesting information for them.”

Lukashenko is trying to intimidate opponents, demonstrating that “we can get everyone,” says UIF expert Igor Tyshkevich

“These are absolutely inadequate actions aimed at strangling the resisting, first of all, the media. Lukashenka beats the mirrors with all his foolishness in the hope of breaking them, but does not understand that it will not be possible to do this,” Lukashenka’s rival in the 2010 presidential elections, Andrei Sannikov, specifying that the dictator’s actions lead to an escalation of protest moods in society and an explosion may occur “in the near future”.

WHAT’S NEXT. The EU countries will discuss this incident at the May 24-25 summit. New sanctions may be adopted against Belarus, in particular, potentially closing the airspace over the country, ban Belavia flights to EU airports and block the transit of ground transport. However, this decision is collectively made by ICAO.

Tyshkevich doubts that the sky will be closed for Belarus. According to him, there have already been similar incidents, but no critical consequences. For example, the case of the plane of the President of Bolivia in 2013, who forcibly landed in Austria due to the assumption that ex-CIA agent Edward Snowden, who was wanted in the United States, was on board. Also, says Tyshkevich, China, Russia and Brazil, which criticized the incident with the Bolivian president, may oppose the closure of the skies over Belarus.

At the same time, the decision to fly around Belarus can be made at the level of individual operators and airlines, he clarifies.

The question is about money. What will come first when making a decision: the issue of values ​​or money for airlines in the post-view period, – Tyshkevich believes

Some airline companies have already refused to fly over Belarus. And Wizz Air launched a Kiev-Tallinn flight via Poland, although on May 19 the same flight flew directly over Belarus. Ryanair CEO says that for them the ban on flights over Belarus, if such a decision is made, will be “a very minor amendment.” They will simply plot a route over Poland. Tyshkevich believes that the low-cost airline is likely to receive compensation from Belarus for this incident.

I hope that today outside Belarus they will understand that the Lukashenka regime poses a threat to security not only for our neighbors, but for the entire democratic world in general, ”says Andrei Sannikov, Lukashenka’s rival in the 2010 presidential election.

“The dictatorship in Belarus poses a real threat in the air, on the ground and in the information space. This regime is clearly supported by Russia and therefore the consequences should affect it too,” Sannikov said, specifying that they should be serious and could affect, for example, the Nord Stream. 2.

Sannikov says that hatred towards the regime is already going off scale in Belarus and “an explosion should be expected,” and the detention of Protasevich aggravates the situation: there is simply no way out of it, which is usual for him. The only way out is resignation and urgent recovery of the Belarusian situation. ”

Tyshkevich thinks differently. The detention of Protasevich, in his opinion, will not in any way affect the protest activity, since now there is no specific idea around which people would rally. A new package of European sanctions was expected, since no compromise was reached between Minsk and Brussels: “From this point of view, everything was predictable for Lukashenka.”