Lukashenko is copying Erdogan

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By Costas Raptis

Tayyip Erdogan seems to be creating a “school” – since what the Greek side denounced during the Evros crisis in February 2020 as a “hybrid attack” by “instrumentalizing the refugee issue” is now blamed on all EU capitals. to the leader of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko after the recent unfortunate developments on the border of his country with Poland and secondarily Lithuania.

But from the same textbook, the leaderships of the EU member states themselves seem to be copying, at least if we take into account the accusations of Britain that France is similarly exploiting refugee flows in the context of the confrontation between the two sides for fishing rights in the Channel after Brexit. On Thursday alone, according to the BBC, about a thousand people arrived by boat off the coast of the United Kingdom, setting a daily record of arrivals by sea. In fact, according to the “Daily Mail”, the British government accuses the President of France, Emanuel Macron, of “granting sovereign territory to traffickers” and “indirect instrumentalization of immigration”. It is noted that since the beginning of the year until today more than 23,000 people crossed the Channel by boat from France to the United Kingdom, a number almost three times the number of 8,404 recorded in 2020, but also much higher compared to the years before the pandemic .

Not that the owner of the … copyright forgets his old art. “If we open our borders, I do not know what will happen to Greece,” said Tayyip Erdogan during joint statements with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, which also added to the angry statements of the Turkish leader that our whole country “has” converted to US base “. “Greece is the country that sinks the boats of refugees in the Aegean and the Mediterranean and sentences them to death. Mr. Mitsotakis and his attendees spend their days lying and not behaving honestly, and therefore in the region “They inspire confidence,” added Tayyip Erdogan, raising his voice.

The attitude of Moscow

However, whatever is being carried out or threatened at other external borders of the EU, everyone’s eyes are now focused primarily on the Polish-Belarusian border. And rightly so, since this crisis is not only in danger of militarization, but also of spreading to the “gas war”, leading to unforeseen situations the neo-Cold War confrontation on the old continent.

Suffice it to say that the gathering of 15,000 Polish soldiers at the border due to the refugee crisis was not only the subject of a telephone conversation between Lukashenko and his close friend Vladimir Putin this week, but also “answered” with a surprise joint exercise of two countries in the Grodno region, with the participation of Russian IL-76 transport aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian forces. It was preceded by the threat of Poland to address its allies in NATO under Article 5 of the Atlantic Charter on mutual assistance in the event of an attack. The issue is now being addressed by the UN Security Council.

How did the last episode of the “new Cold War” get bigger?

What exactly is happening on the EU’s eastern border? Since August, messages to Tiktok and the Telegram have been “advertising” as the ideal access route to EU territory the Polish-Lithuanian-Belarusian border, to which refugees and migrants from Afghanistan, Iran and Iran have been airlifted. Yemen and Syria. This is a development only partially spontaneous (due to the growing difficulties of the Aegean sea route). In fact, the encouragement from the Belarusian authorities is obvious, as Belarus has abolished the visa requirement for citizens of Iran, Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan and South Africa flying to Minsk or the other five airports on time. of the country.

The result is that, according to EU figures, 7,935 people attempted to cross Belarus’ borders with Poland and Lithuania, up from just 150 last year. The sealing of the Polish border has resulted in the entrapment of about 2,000 people (including women and children) in the dead zone, with ten of them having already lost their lives.

Escalation pattern

And Lukashenko’s tactics seem to be following a pattern of escalation, with Poland last week accusing Belarus of launching an armed cross-border invasion at a depth of 300 meters and summoning (for the third time in a row) the Belarusian ambassador for explanations.

And the prospect of imposing new sanctions by the EU. in Belarus led Lukashenko to make new threats. “If they impose additional sanctions on us, we have to respond. We are ensuring that Europe heats up and they are threatening us. What will happen if we cut off the flow of gas?” of Russian gas passing through his country should be considered unthinkable without the “green light” of Moscow.

All this is a logical consequence of EU assistance. Lukashenko’s attempt to overthrow him (but this is not called a “hybrid attack”) following the recent Belarussian elections and, in particular, the imposition of European sanctions on Belarussian airline to her.

Russia “is and will remain a country that keeps all its commitments to deliver gas to European consumers,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peshkov said, calming markets.

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Source From: Capital

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