Majority of provinces in China forecast growth of at least 5% in 2023

Twenty-nine of China’s 31 provinces have announced annual economic growth targets of at least 5% for 2023, according to state media reports, underscoring pressure from local governments for a quick recovery after Beijing removed most of the Covid-related restrictions. 19 last month.

Economic targets for China’s 31 subnational regions suggest a weighted target of 5.63% GDP growth in 2023, down from 6.09% last year, analysts at Hua Chuang Securities said.

The two exceptions are Beijing and its neighboring port city Tianjin, which are targeting growth above 4.5% and around 4% respectively, according to a report in the state-run newspaper. Shanghai Securities Times this Monday (16).

The tropical island of Hainan, in the south, has set the highest growth target of 9.5%, while the southwestern region of Tibet aims for 8%, says the report.

Twelve regions, including the populous southwestern provinces of Sichuan and central Henan, are looking to expand their economy by around 6%, with another four provinces, including the central provinces of Hunan and Hubei, expecting 6.5%, according to the report. The central province of Jiangxi and the western regions of Xinjiang expect an economic recovery of about 7%, according to the newspaper.

Some of the country’s economic powerhouses, including coastal areas in Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong and Jiangsu, have set more moderate growth targets of around or above 5%, according to the Shanghai Securities Times. Shanghai, along with southern Guangxi and northwestern Shaanxi provinces, is expected to expand by 5.5%.

Hua Chuang Securities said in a report on Monday that 21 regions had revised down their growth targets by 0.5 to 1 percentage point compared to 2022.